How many contracts?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by trader1974, Nov 29, 2019.

  1. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    10-20 contracts has always been my max but I never keep $100k in a futures account even though I can trade with much more.

    $5,000 / 1 contract trading swings (6 points or more on ES) without stops is a healthy amount. If you are scalping, you get get down to $1500 / contract with a high win rate and 2 point stops
     
    #31     Nov 29, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.
  2. tzachi

    tzachi

    Start the calculation from the bottom and go up, not down from the 100K.
    What is your probability of winning? How many win/loss per 100 trades?
    Day or overnight position (different margin req'.)
    What is your average $win and average $ loss?

    Now start to calculate. If i win 7/10 and trade ES for a fixed 1 point TP and fixed 1.5 point Sl, over 100 trades= Won 3.5K, lost 2.25K, net before commission=1.25K, reduce profits by 0.5K for 100 trades commission and you are net net up 0.75K (for 1 contract)

    Use the above formula and change to your parameters to calculate if you should even trade or find another occupation. No issue of luck. Or you have a probability of winning on your side based on your trading method or not. Its the same as in the casino business(for the owners). To make it crystal clear just watch Mark Douglas https://www.youtube.com/results?sea...ow+to+think+like+a+professional+trader+1+of+4

    If you are on the plus side at the end of the day and able to use your method as mechanically as can be, you can use as many contracts as you wish - limited by your margin availability.

    Good luck.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2019
    #32     Nov 30, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.
  3. CannonTrading_Ilan

    CannonTrading_Ilan Sponsor

    what platform?
    You should be able to place stops on open positions without an issue and/or be able to cal broker/desk right away.
    To answer your initial question, I would keep a very tight journal, start with 10 and once you have a good log of daily action, P&L, worst losses etc. consider going higher. Like @trader1974 said, margin wise you have plenty of room ( we actually offer $500 daytrading margins) but the question here is your risk appetite/ risk capital and how aggressive you want to be.
     
    #33     Dec 1, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.
  4. Evgeniy

    Evgeniy

    For several years I had only 1 (one!) slippage on the ES.

    I took a position immediately before the statistics at 8:30 NY with a stop of 1 point (4 ticks). The movement went against me - at first a sharp throw by 2 points (8 ticks), and then quickly further. My stop worked and I got 2 ticks slipping (!). Thus, my total stop was 1.5 points (6 ticks). In all other cases, execution was at a stop price.

    There was also one force majeure in ~ 2010 (I don’t remember exactly) when New York was drowned.
     
    #34     Dec 2, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.
  5. trader1974

    trader1974

    It's those events, like the flash crash of 2010, that make you replant everything
     
    #35     Dec 2, 2019
    comagnum likes this.
  6. Evgeniy

    Evgeniy

    The "number of contracts" is not determined by "comfort." This is a simple mathematical consequence depending on the quality of a representative series of deals. Show your series of at least 100 trades and it will become clear what position size should be exactly in your trade.

    The way to quantify through the emotional assessment of "comfort" will lead to a collapse in one of two ways:
    - either immediately take too much and incur large losses;
    - either take a little, then get bolder, then the psychological buildup begins, then at the next phase of the buildup you stop at the moment of a big drawdown.

    The best thing is to gradually increase the size of the position, investing the EARNED еarnings in additional risk.
     
    #36     Dec 2, 2019
  7. Evgeniy

    Evgeniy

    I traded on May 6, 2010 and saw OCF (Order Cash Flow) in ES. OCF was flexible and consistent, except for the very bottom where the liquidity gap and emptiness went. I personally disagree with the flash crash version. In my opinion, the ES did not drag the stock market down, the ES followed the stock market.

    In general, everything was fine with the execution of stops. You can watch numerous videos or run replay on your computer. The main thing in that situation was that the computer would pull out processing of an increased number of transactions and not think that a nuclear war had started somewhere))
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
    #37     Dec 2, 2019
  8. Skylow

    Skylow

    It all depends..If your trading experience matches your account size then determine what's a comfortable daily profit level for you. If $120,000.00 is sufficient on a yearly basis I'm assuming to match your initial out lay then around (6) contracts to start is a reasonable amount to hit over $500.00/day trading 5 days/wk. To maximise your earning potential splitting the total to $50,000 day trading eminis and $50,000 in options to spread your wealth making opportunities , so to speak.
     
    #38     Dec 9, 2019
  9. no more then 5-10 anything more then that is too much risk, 100k isn't a huge account and could quickly be much less if you start trading too many cars...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 11, 2019
    #39     Dec 11, 2019
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    On a 100K account, this seems excessive. I'd say 2-3 contracts max on minis.
     
    #40     Dec 11, 2019