Never traded ES as a future sorry, defo only 2 if 5 times the value. ES barely moves compared to YM but that $5 per pt right? Spot trader here.
It doesn't matter how profitable your strategy is. Preserving capital is number one priority for any full time trader unless you are super rich and don't care to lose all. That said, I'd only trade with 4-lot per 100k account. I'm more than happy to make 2 to 4 points each day using 4 lots to make a trade or two which is equivalent to $400 to $800 in profits. Isn't that enough for a trader trading for living?
I am strictly a day trader and experience modest gainers and more modest losers. My comfort level is around 5k per contract. I could trade with smaller margin capital but it would move me out of my comfort zone. I've been doing this for years and know where my outliers are, I would not recommend that aggressive leverage for a newer trader.
Then proportionally with $ 100,000 operate with 20 contracts. Really a wild leverage ... You have never had an accident? Can you tell any anecdote?
Never an accident...no anecdotes. I don't worry about things I have no control over but in the event of a Black Swan event one can be positioned in the direction of the move, positioned in the opposite direction of the move (no bueno), flat or there is the possibility that the exchanges break the trades.
14 lots, due to when 911 re-opened, ES dropped about $3500 and day trading margins increased to around that amount. It is not so much of how many can you do, as it is how much can you lose beyond your house, cars, marriage, children, entire way of life. I have known a few guys who lost it all cause they got greedy, one guy lost it all on 3 short lumber contracts and I believe it was over a dozen limit up days in a row. Yep, house with family in it he lost. You want to be able to say no matter what, can still trade tomorrow.
Intraday with the ES future, for the main strategy in my plan, I'm using 12500 per contract, so would leverage 8 contracts with $100k. The "why?" for me is because my loss size fluctuates from trade to trade, but the average net loser over the last 2000+ trades has been about 12 ticks. At 12500 per contract, I have a baseline of 1000 ticks, so a 12 tick loss (or string of them) doesn't feel like a big deal. To me, Speedos margin of $5000 per contract makes sense and sounds reasonable. He's stated many times on ET that his losers are 6-7 ticks. If I decided to adjust my time frames and entries/stops, to a point where my average loser was 6 ticks, then I'd be comfortable reducing margin down to $6250 per contract, leveraging 16 contracts with $100k. Key is to find something that 1) works, and 2) you're comfortable with.