I'm wrapp'n up my week by calling my current clients around the world. I am hearing the same thing, no matter if it's China, EU, South America, etc. Each and every one of my Accredited Investors ( I hold the same standard to non-us citizens as required by SEC, even though there is no rule that establishes such) are saying the same thing. They are all Private Business owners in all kinds of industry. The common theme...we are seeing a slowdown. PERIOD! Depending on the region, I get a different outlook into 2012. Asia, I'm hearing a lot of..."We are slowing down but we are not worried". EU, I'm hearing "Everything is on hold and they are fearful for the over all economy collapse, no just in the Euro but in trade and manufacturing". South America, the pulse is "Slow down but very cautious on 2012". The WORLD IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS SLOWED DOWN HUGE THIS QUARTER. PERIOD. Now keep in mind I deal with PRIVATE COMPANIES. There is n o inflated stock to cash in or "CENTRAL BANK" to save them. Unlike AA, if these guys file for bankruptcy protection, odds are...they will fold. No BAIL OUTS. Yet, look at the US in Number terms. First, the number that many agree on, as the real Unemployment/Underemployed combined is 23%. During the First Depression unemployment was around 25%, no sure if this included underemployed or not. The Gov Deception is 9% unemployment. Do the sheeople really believe that number of 9%? Food stamps.... added 13 million since the new administration took over. Not blaming the administration, just using it as a time line. Real inflation is 10% if we use the same math as we had before Nixon took us off the Gold Standard. Lets not included the Debt cuz that is a lost cause...it will not go away. Bottom line, no matter how the Pundits spin it, no matter how much hot air pushes up markets..... The world is in the first phase of a Depression. Of course, much like the United States where there will be states who survive a flurish, there will be countries that survive and even grow in progress and revenue. However, what is interesting is the fact that the majority in the United States refuse to believe that a Depression is at hand because the do not see soup lines, bread lines et all. We will not see that because of all the GOV aid on "Plastic" now. Walmart's CEO stated, last year, that the bread line is at his Store's on the First of every month. What I read on ET is beyond funny. All these successful traders. Yet, the truth is, most are beyond broke. Not to say a few are not successful but the majority on ET are like the majority in this country....not facing facts. What i do not see on ET is reality check on the next possible arena's where wealth will be created. The STOCK MARKET in general, is not it. But there may be a few like MCD, CAT, XOM, who may survive and show decent returns. CAT because the war torn areas are going to be rebuilt some day and the mining of Natural Resources in Indonesia et all....is on going and CAT has it's hand world wide in those areas.
Well, shorting via Puts isn't a bad play. Less risky than shorting qqqs out right and trying to pick a top. However, you and I both know that the Powers that be, will not let the markets crumble in a panic fashion. This is going to be a long painful death of the 401k and qs. Hence the rally of yesterday and far more to come. There is a disconnect between real world and Wall Street. However, if you look at the over all market volume from year to year, you see people leaving faster than 'Getting short".
True. Changes in the political landscape are equally disturbing. Warrantless spying, rendition, torture, end of habeus corpus, presidential assasination of citizens, tsa checkpoints, naked body scanners and genital fondling, and now, the NDAA act - the homeland is now a battlefeild and americans can be arrested and detained by the military - indefinitely - with no warrant, judge or jury....by the US military. This is it folks. Zeig heil. America is going down. The sheep are dead to the world - culturally, economically, politically, financially. The tipping point is right around the corner.