how low oil?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dsq, Sep 15, 2008.

  1. dsq


    mid 80s seems to be some old support??

    there should be an oversold bounce soon... however maybe there is a ton of forced margin selling left due to equity carnage?

    Also if rates are cut that would hit dollar and boost oil....oil is down3 after hours...92 ish!
  2. I've bought some calls at $100, planning to average in each $10 lower. I'll go long the outright if it gets down to about $86 or lower.

    Basically oil right now is a leveraged S&P. When stocks bottom and bounce, so will commodities - just twice as hard.
  3. Oil short = depression trade.

    Long bonds = depression trade.

    Short S&P = depression trade.

    It doesn't matter how much they cut tommorow - it only matters if they can contain AIG and prevent the nightmare that is about to ensue.
  4. good point same with solars, they have been raped the shit out of the last few months
  5. S2007S


    Where is the hype behind oil, thought it was headed to $200.....

    Oil is headed down a lot further I'm bullish on it for a bounce but other than that the long term view is DownDownDown, oil is headed to $40-50 and gas under $3.00.
  6. dsq


    oil now 91ish!

    im lookin at hero,nov for a bounce...mee got smashed...

    also this is option expiration week...maybe play some cheap oex calls?

    hedge funds must be closing out oil positions...

    vix and bearish sentiment got to be near a peak here....

    who knows weve been through similar moves before but this time it seems the fundamental foundations are at serious risk. LEH,MER,bsc,fnm,fre all gone and more to come perhaps...
  7. bkveen3


    The players who pushed this up are having to liquidate their positions to shore up their balance sheets. The move up wasn't demand driven. Don't expect it to return to those heights unless the FED does something stupid like a 100 BP cut.