How low Canadian dollars will go?

hopefully I am not understanding you properly. Isn't that just Martingaling? Now, If you are talking about trading from just one side I suppose, but isn't it hard to make money if you are wrong on the trend? To each his own. I believe in the trend so deeply that I am constantly taking the other side. So, like I say I have been short usd/cad all through the rally, sometimes with very large size, and now here we are at the top and I'm finally long a small amount. I never make any money, but it beats working.

 

second it

 

Is it Martingaling? Maybe. However, I don't double the position after each loss. I began a gradual short into this pair as the USDCAD rose above its 25 year average price. I have a set maximum loss I am willing to take, and I short term trade with smaller size when the pair moves closer to its average price. I would consider this more of cost averaging strategy. We all assume that over the long run the index will rise, therefore the long term investor will gradually add to his long even when the market is correcting. I believe over the long run the USDCAD will trend back to its average. Therefore over the long run, a short is profitable if I allow the net price of my longterm trade to rise. In the meantime ALL short term trades are profitable given that a short term trades becomes a long term trade when it goes against me.

 

I know the feeling. I use to be scalper. Every now and then one would get away from me and I would hold overnight. Then I woke up one morning with a ton of money in my account and said, "Oh, so that's how they make money."

But I get it, you want to get short usd.cad because you believe it will revert to the mean, so you are happy to scalp it from the short side and make a few pips along the way, and if one gets away from you it goes into the longtem vault, and tomorrow is a new day for putting on a new short scalp.

 

Given the cyclical nature of this currency pair, I actually see this as a huge opportunity. Let the USDCAD rise to $1.50, $2.00, even $3.00! It won't, but if it does: bring it on!

 

Exactly.

 

.57

 

that's about where I need it to go now just to get even

 

And I'll be down about $15,000 by then depending on how much I am able to recover with scalping.

Actually, instead of .57 was 1.57 intended?

 

I trade $CADCHF and i expect further falling. We have potential patterns forming, but until then we have a short trade to take with a good SL