I asked myself this question over a nice cold bottle of beer. After several cold ones I fired up my computer in an attempt to find the answer. I first asked how low did the dow go in previous recessions. Seems reasonable to me to start here. 1987 CRASH 8/28/1987 to 10/23/1987(Peak to trough) High 2746 Low 1616 Total point decline = 1130 or -41.15% 1990 Recession 7/20/1990 to 10/12/1990 High 3024 Low 2344 Total point decline = 680 or -22.4% 2000 recession 01/14/2000 to 10/11/02 High 11750 Low 7179 Total point decline 4571 or -38.90% The Big Flush 10/12/07 to 3/6/09 High 14198 Low 6469 Total point decline = 7729 or -54.43% Obama Recession 5/6/2011 to November 2012 High 12876 Low ????? pick your poison -21.48% = dow 9981 -22.60%= dow 10094 -38.90%=dow 7867 -41.15%= dow 7577 -54.43%= dow 5868 More than -54.43% decline Less than -21.48% decline No Decline at all, we rip from here
the dow low 6600 march 09 to high of 12 800 this year let's say 50 % retracement sound like a good start dow 9500 target sounds right may not get that low again. then again you never know
50% retracement is right around the major support area so you might be right. I don't think we'll go below Dow 10k.
the flash crash low last year was dow 9900 . that would be a nice target to hit with these global issues we may test that area won't take much to get there