How Long Will the Volatility Last?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by achilles28, Mar 20, 2008.

  1. In this market, it appears volatility is fueled by uncertainty and leverage.

    Both are slowly winding down.

    The uncertainty could last much longer, as long-term Gov policy is to prop an underwater market and financial sector.

    Don't wanna debate policy, just speculate the longevity of current trading conditions?

    How long will this volatility last? a few weeks? A few months? A year or longer?
     
  2. The longer the better.

    I hope it lasts forever as a trader.

     
  3. Who knows.
    Could last years or just a few more months.

    The VIX stayed between 20-40 (somtimes spiking to almost 50) between 1998 and 2003.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=b&c=
     
  4. Cheese

    Cheese

    Agree 100%.
    :)
     
  5. I think it will remain for the remainder of the year or longer due to the mortgage problems, investment bank problems, credit problems, high oil prices, dollar concerns, elections et cetera.

    Mark

    Self-Banned from posting any useful trading related content at EliteTrader.com
     
  6. Self-Banned from posting!
    Kidding?
     
  7. Hell based on ES today it looks like volatility already ended. I'm falling asleep here.
     
  8. I didn't say self banned from posting. :D

    Mark
     
  9. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    What he said.
     
  10. Does anybody have a prediction from a GARCH model or anything similar handy to share?
     
    #10     Mar 21, 2008