In contrast to what you say in your article (see quote below) to what Morty's site says, I am a believer of survival... What I am giving you here is a framework around which to calculate your expectations Guy2 you also said this too: There are many assumptions in these figures. We have not discussed the possibility of having 20 losing trades in a row followed by 20 winning trades in a row. If you used a stop of 2 points per trade and the first 20 trades you placed were all losers then you will have lost 40 points which (based on trading 1 contract) is $2,200 (including commission of $5 per trade) and your account is down to $2,800. This is a devastating way to start but nonetheless is a possibility and a reality that you should plan for and not ignore. Making a spreadsheet Morty's way seems more defensive and the way I am accustomed to thinking about survival and expectations. It must be wonderful to have such an efficient and consistant edge that one could think in a proactive way.