About a year and a half ago, I had a secondary IB account with just a few grand left in it that I had maxed out on YG contracts. At one point the account equity dipped to $1,250 or so, but gold staged an afternoon rally that left me clear of a liquidation call that day. About 6 months later at its peak, the account stood at around 70K, with all the gains coming from continual pyramiding of YG and YI contracts (YI having a much smaller margin req at the time). This was around April of 04. Two weeks after that peak, the account was back under 2K. Fun times.
50/50, but if you throw 10 bilion times the total should be 50/50. As at this moment you had 5/0 in the long run, you would have to have 5 more tails than heads to get to a 50/50 average. So in the 10 billion minus 5 throws, you should have more heads than tails to get to the statistical 50/50 situation. So is isn't 50/50 i think, because you have to count in the 5 throws you already had. Am i wrong? (not that it would make a difference to my trading)
I could have thought of alot worse things to call me than "gambler". It was just a warning to those with "calculator-itis" to be careful what you wish for; if you really want to figure out the fastest way to take 5K to 100K, you'll find some way to do it, if you try hard enough.
Obviously still 50/50. But I said an unfair coin and the law of large numbers... So I don't understand your example...yet...
You are right, if you have UNFAIR coin with even 49/51 chance and bet engough times, you make your money. I think science_trader didnt noticed UNFAIR word...
This all depends on the person and how much risk he can tolerate/manage. My guess is as follows: 85% - will never grow 5K to 100K 10% - it will take them 2 years 4% - it will take them 1 year 1% - it will take them 4 months and in one year probably grow it to 1Million. Back to reality now. The question should be re-phrased to how long does it take someone to take a 5K account to 0 !!! Most ppl are destined to lose in my opinion. They don't have what it takes. Everyone thinks they can make money, they don't realize they're up against some of the smartest minds in the world. Do the major leagues (sports) allow anyone to come in and play in their league. NO. Unfortuneatly the market does, lambs to the slaughter and this cycle keeps repeating as a never ending new crop of hopefull traders enter the market over and over again. ozzy
My guess is as follows: 98% - will never grow 5K to 100K 1.5% - it will take them 2 years 0.4% - it will take them 1 year 0.1% - it will take them 4 months and in one year probably grow it to 1Million.
guy wrote a follow up ... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...7&highlight=written+follow+up+ruin#post690157 agreed. however, the cycle does at least a couple of things: 1. it puts money from losing hands into winning hands 2. it provides an education based on experience you can easily pay $25,000 a year for four years from a university, and walk away with little more than $100,000 in loans. it is common to get an education (maybe) with no experience behind it. losing money can be a great learning instrument. then again, it can also just be the result of a delusional and addictive personality. let's assume the former take care - omni