How long should you backtest a day trading strategy?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by xm020-2959, Aug 30, 2020.

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  1. I may not be an seasoned wall street professional analyst, but I'm far from one of those "hodlers" from the crypto community. I stepped in here asking for advice from a supposedly "elite" community, asking for some buyers advice, and instead was lectured about how its impossible to make money without waiting decades, lectured about how leverage works, and overall I just feel insulted, and was mistaken for a fool that loses money. When someone comes at me with that non sense I don't care who they are, or what age level they are. Prepare to get smashed that's all I'm saying. I'm a shark and that's how I trade.
     
    #21     Aug 30, 2020
    handelaar.nl and murray t turtle like this.
  2. %%
    Good points also on TSLA not even doing 1%;
    im not long that one...…………..{Not a stock tip, not luck,not an insult}I have no idea of that traders age age, but me, I had to pay up for auto insurance as a teen.Good reason for that;teens are not good with risk...………………………………………………………………………...
    I'll close on a positive note/rich Dennis said there an insurance premium for overnite holds.I may not makes as much Monday/I sold some[exits] long tqqq/lightened the long load risk
     
    #22     Aug 30, 2020
  3. wmwmw

    wmwmw


    "All I am trying to do is make 1-10% a day. Thats not difficult."

    Only a newbie dare to say that.

    A calf is brave when it faces a tiger for the first time.
     
    #23     Aug 30, 2020
  4. Tradex

    Tradex

    Traders can triple their money in a week, no doubt,
    Doing this consistently, that's the problem.
    At the end, in the long run, the average ROI is 1 to 2% a month.
     
    #24     Aug 30, 2020
    walter739 and murray t turtle like this.
  5. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    The thread becoming funnier and funnier. Btw, if you decide to leave do not let the door slam you on the back.

    the honest answer, you will never find such a script as no one in their right mind would ever release code they generates consistent profits.
     
    #25     Aug 30, 2020
    Lou Friedman and taowave like this.
  6. The funny part about this whole thread was I asked if anyone knew of any scripts off hand that can achieve those results. And the answer I received in return was if it was even possible to make those kinds of results in the first place. If you don't think its possible to make 1% a day from an automated strategy, then you need to educate yourself. If automated trading wasn't profitable, why is it a multi million dollar industry? You have platforms such as ninja trader that fully support this concept, with built in backtesting software that proves which strategies are profitable in the long run.

    "the honest answer, you will never find such a script as no one in their right mind would ever release code they generates consistent profits"


    Why wouldn't they? Third party strategy developers have every incentive to make their users money, as the most common liscense type for NT is monthly. The more subscriptions they accumulate, the more monthly revenue they make. For example, if a dev has 1000 subscribers, each paying $50/month, thats over $50K a month. Thats over $500K a year on top of what they are making trading. If their strategies weren't profitable, then they wouldn't have any users, and they wouldn't be making any money.

    Due to bottleknecks in liquidity, its quite impossible to make $50k a month day trading. You can't scale such a strategy with larger orders as they just won't fill if you try to make that kind of money. Therefor its actually more profitable to create and sell automated systems than it is to use them for yourself.

    Its the same argument with those cloud mining contracts for crypto. Why would a company rent their machines when they could just mine for themself?
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2020
    #26     Aug 30, 2020
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    Your concerns are valid, but you are forgetting one thing about any trading system. Unless the strategy can evolve with the evolving nature of how daily/weekly/monthly price action changes, then the system will hit snags.

    No market, I do not care whether it is gold, forex, bonds, DOW, cows, oil, corn or pigs...NO market stays in the same trading pattern for long (say, a year).

    That is why you saw your "strategy" having losing times.

    Compare NASDAQ 2017 to NASDAQ 2020 (or many other years).

    Keep on backtesting, you'll get it!
     
    #27     Aug 30, 2020
  8. This is Channel VA by AMN Trader. I'm going to try it and I'll let you know how it works in 3 years.
     
    #28     Aug 30, 2020
  9. gaussian

    gaussian

    You're misunderstanding percentages.

    If you have $100 and you lose 10% that's $90. To get back to $100 you'd need to gain 11%. Counter-intuitive right? (90-100)/100 = -10% and (100-90)/90 = 11%.

    So in your example, if half your trades fail it's entirely possible even if you win the next half of trades you'll still be net negative for the day.
     
    #29     Aug 30, 2020
  10. Tradex

    Tradex

    Markets can only do 3 things : go up, down, or sideways, that's it!
    And they have been doing this for centuries.

    The idea that markets "evolve" is a big fat lie that brokers and fund managers love to repeat over and over again, to justify the huge fees they collect from their customers.

    In essence here is what they are basically saying, over and over again : "Guys, don't try to predict the markets, they are always "changing", so give us your money and let us deal with this "problem", we are the "experts" and we know how to deal with the "ever-changing" nature of the markets!"

    Crap.

    Bullshit.

    Lies.
     
    #30     Aug 30, 2020
    Illini Trader and dennis86 like this.
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