How long is long term??

Discussion in 'Trading' started by deaddog, Jan 3, 2025.

  1. I hold a position or investment as long as I feel comfortable, basically if I do not need the money urgently and I know there is still room for profits, I let it run which is logical I would say.
     
    #51     Jan 5, 2025
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  2. sridhga

    sridhga

    Under water: 1 stock. It got delisted and the company is still in business. But no market to sell the same. But that is less than 0.01% of the total investment.
     
    #52     Jan 5, 2025
  3. NAV erosion is a characteristic of high yield strategies...collateral damage to maintain the cash train! :)

    Remember I developed a version of this system back in 2020 so I understand how it works.

    For example my portfolio was up 20% during the last bitcoin rally, then it was down 20%...now up 5%...doesn't matter! If I add in the dividends I'm still positive NAV.

    upload_2025-1-5_3-28-47.png
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2025
    #53     Jan 5, 2025
  4. smallfil

    smallfil

    Long term I would say, is measured in years. That said, the big problem of long term investing is the big drawdowns. No matter how good the stock, there will be reactions or pullbacks along the way and it will cut down your profits or even result in losses in the near term. Mentally, that is pretty bad for any trader or investor for that matter. And what if the pullback turns into a continuous selloff? The trend has changed now too. Seems the only logical solution is only trade the price swings to the upside. Sell into strength and take what the market gives.
     
    #54     Jan 5, 2025
  5. VOLdemort

    VOLdemort


    If you've ever beaten a passive investment benchmark I'll **** ** ****.
     
    #55     Jan 5, 2025
  6. PPC

    PPC


    Long term holding is often a code name for an intraday trade with no SL. :D

    Most EOD traders let their trade management dictate the duration, at least that’s how it should be. Even stock investors should have an exit plan and not let their money disappear. Your sell rule is fine as it seems to be based on sound logic and is part of your trade management plan. :)

    There is no magic formula when it comes to selling, but you could consider selling part of your position into strength if it gets extended or gets close to a zone of confluence, and then trail the rest.

    Holding through downturns does not seem to work well because the reality is that nobody ever knows if the stock will drop just say 5% or 80% and never recover. It's better to re-enter on a pullback. Protecting your account and mental capital needs to be a priority. If you miss out on a long-term winner, then there will be another trade in the near future.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2025
    #56     Jan 5, 2025
    VicBee likes this.
  7. It all depends on if you're talking ETFs or if you're talking single stocks? In my opinion, there's never a time to sell an ETF only average down. Single stocks cap by size versus stops in my opinion. But yeah, obviously you risk them not ever recovering. But I would also not have a long-term investment in any stock no matter what it is...seems like a total retail thing to do. Everything would be a swing trade.
     
    #57     Jan 5, 2025
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  8. wildchild

    wildchild

    You need entry and exit criteria well defined before you enter. Moving stops, holding losers longer,etc is not profitable.
     
    #58     Jan 5, 2025
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  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    When does a short term move become a long term move?
    I've never put a time limit on a position, I see people doing that as in I want to hold this for 3 years, never understood that rationalization behind that.
    My portfolio exactly. Long only, stocks only.
    My thinking is that if a stock continues to trend there is no reason to sell. When the trend changes there is no reason to hold. I shouldn't hold a stock I wouldn't buy and I don't buy stocks in a down trend.
    I prefer the ones that trend smoothly
    I missed the last move in TSLA, still trending
    Can you expand on this a little, not sure I understand what you mean.
    I learned that a long time ago. I didn't like seeing my nest egg cut in half and had to come up with a strategy that would prevent that.
     
    #59     Jan 5, 2025
    VicBee likes this.
  10. I think another thing to take into consideration is that nobody around here at least as far as I've seen has any clue about projecting price. So other than some rudimentary (non-existent) support levels, you guys are pretty clueless... Mostly just throwing darts in the dark.:)
     
    #60     Jan 5, 2025