when your strategy or plan stops working and you have to try something new that does not come close to the win % of the old method
very likely, the sooner you get to realize that the market displays the logic of a lunatic the better it is.
Sorry, but I disagree... Moreover, I assert that "the smarter you are, the more likely you are to survive and prosper, irrespective of how long it takes to attain relative consistency"...
Logic? HA HA Seriously, the market is about greed and fear, which both fuel supply and demand. Now you put logic into greed and fear and you get my drift...
every situation is different. however I read and know several traders who would say that part of the process of being succesful has to do with 'unlearning' many things. The more you know, the more it takes to forget about misleading notions regarding the markets. Anyway it was a way to refer to the 'deprogramming' required to become a trader. Most resist, some don't. If you are a proprietary, private trader, then being smart is very important in other aspects of the business (money management, planning, risk control etc...). Anyway, the question is 'how long does it take ?' Well, it depends on the method. if you work for a prop shop, you often select one of the methods trading there. So you either get it or not. a few months to 1 year will probably tell you if you should leave and try something else. and even if you succeed, sometimes a method does not work anymore.. if you did not learn to be adaptive you may have problem. I know very succesful prop traders, don't get me wrong. It's a good way to make it in the biz. if you are on your own and must build your own method it is usually much longer. Also there are stages I think. It takes a certain time to stop losing consistently. Then you are breakeven in a market or method. that's an important stage and it can take quite some time. but then, transforming this into a profitable long term business can take a lot more time in comparison. so there are several 'how long does it take?' the important one in my eyes is the time it takes to succeed while you treat trading as a business and that business is good for you. in my case, several years. 4 i'd guess (hard to decide when you really are trying as a biz or as a hobby). Even considering the full time work on it, it was a couple of years. that's longer than in a prop shop I think for most. on the other hand, since then, I know many were crushed in prop shops by changing markets after 2000.. Adaptation is key. Although I use a lot of automation, I realize trading is something very organic.. what works is Adaptation and Natural Selection. but that's another question.