How long does it take to prove a system's edge

Discussion in 'Trading' started by tradingjournals, Dec 14, 2011.

  1. How long does it take to prove a system's edge, if the system is an experimental one (in other words, an edge that is not proved using math for instance)?

    I did an analysis some time ago: It said 250 years!

    So what is your answer/comment?
  2. heech


  3. Trade outcome is an (unknown) distribution, not a coin experiment.
  4. One backtest, one forward test. For me usually about 250 milliseconds.
  5. there is no such thing as an edge, that's just another one of the traders myths. They say 90% of traders lose, that's because they are unbeleivably gullible and beleive in myths. You may think when you are talking to traders that they are discriminating individuals like you. It takes a while to realize that most of them are even worse than the people who beleive in late night infomercials.

    I don't know who brainwashed you into thinking they have an edge and you should have one too. You show me a man who has a system for getting along with a woman and I'll show you a man with an edge.

    They already figured this out centuries ago. Everything is always changing.
  6. Oldtime,

    I have no idea what kind of trader you are but it's refreshing to see someone write this. I am just starting to become consistently profitable, and as far as I can tell, edge is nothing more than a traders ability to exploit basic market dynamics - PA, time of day, avg daily range, etc and the rest is letting the market work for you
  7. d08


    The market is very dynamic. Our job is to find the static parts in this dynamic maze.