How long does a system last?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by pwells, Oct 31, 2020.

  1. ph1l

    ph1l

    Trading in the direction of the trend after a pullback is a form of trend following, at least according to:

    https://www.warriortrading.com/trend-trading/
    https://www.asktraders.com/learn-to-trade/trading-guide/pullback-breakout-styles-trading/
    https://tradingstrategyguides.com/profit-from-trading-pullbacks/
     
    #61     Nov 7, 2020
  2. Tradex

    Tradex

    Yes, assuming you use the right pullback trading system, clearly not the case as far as the GRAB strategy is concerned.

    The problem with pullbacks is that a lot of them are simply reversals in disguise.
     
    #62     Nov 8, 2020
  3. pwells

    pwells

    Thanks for all the responses. Regarding factors for longevity of systems in general and daytrading systems in particular, I was thinking in terms of characteristics such as:

    1. KISS - I have heard this improves longevity - the less number of indicators, rules, or variables, the more resilient the system

    2. What about a system that basically works for a wide variety of instruments vs a specialized system that works only with index futures or just ES, for example. Is the type that works for various markets (with tweaking) more resilient than specialized types that deal with the idiosyncrasies of one market, or vice versa?
     
    #63     Nov 8, 2020
  4. guowei58

    guowei58

    For you to determine whether a system stopped working, you need years of data and possibly 1-2K trades. that's how long you initially determined that your system deserves to be traded in the first place.
     
    #64     Nov 12, 2020
    Tradex likes this.