Certain market conditions provide better probabilities of success. More volatility means better probabilities bc patterns are more likely to work out. Less volatility means worse probabilities. Great traders realize this. 50-55% success for even the smartest of us ? Just because you can't break 55% doesn't mean it can't be done.
Even the biggest traders acknowledge their winning percentage to be around 52%... there's a reason for that. (I once had a 5-year stretch of 70% winners... that eventually came back to "normal" win percentage.) Included in that was a 7-month period with 100% winners.
this all varies with types of trades and discipline,iffy trades you don;t take,over trading,scalping,longer term trades
What is an edge? Edge is defined as a quality or factor that gives u superiority over your competitors. Barry bonds taking steroids and hitting 70 home runs was an edge. Do any of us have access to information that the likes of Goldman doesn't have ? Probably not so therefore, neither of us has an edge on our competitors. I have access to the same price bars as all of you. Although, from past experience I understand when certain markets behaviors can lead to good opportunity for profit. Can this be considered an edge ? No. Because you have access to the same data, you might just interpret it differently/wrongly while I can develop a profitable strategy from this information. Edges do not exist to retail traders.
I always thought an 'edge' was having/built a trading system that works for you and your personality that you can execute profitably. If you can achieve that then you definitely have an edge over most traders. I've been trading for just over a year now and I haven't gotten to that point yet.
8 years to find 2nd edge. 1st edge still works but I don't trade it right now because I want to have something to do in the morning and the 1st one is for a longer term over night swing trade in forex. Problems with control of emotions that hopefully I have fixed. Issue with once having a loss wanting to jump back in and trade without setup. Last 2 days no losses and traded correctly so high win% if I wait for a setup with a limit order or wait to see where I want to get in., After more win days, will need to work on adding more contracts.
Of course edges exist for retail traders. You have the same charts as me, but you are unable to analyze them in the same manner that I do. You also trade different time frames as me and have different targets and stops. Also, I don't compete with the machines that are front running and trying to make 1 tick of profit all day long. I compete in a time frame that does not provide enough information for the machines to gain an edge. Finally, most so called traders really don't know how to trade. It's like being a doctor without going to school. Do you think a doctor can spend 1 month reading books and studying the markets and then be able to perform brain surgery? Of course not. Obviously, trading is not easy or anyone would be able to do it. The problem is not finding the edge, it's once you do to be able to trade it consistently. You need to either be patient and only trade profitable setups or program your application to trade for you. I define edge as this. A way to have a profitable setup that if traded over time correctly will generate profits that can be statistically measured. This can either mean the trade will generate a high win% using equal risk vs reward, or a higher reward vs risk if using a lower win%. Also, the edge should not lead to a black swan event for those of you not trading with stops. Before each trade, you also have to be willingly to accept the possibility of a loss, and not revenge trade when it occurs.