In my guess, at least 5 or 10 years is necessary to say "I have profitable logic" for almost sure. If you say, like Buffet, that over 45 years my profit was outperformed 12% over the index, then surely you are the winner. Note that in the last 45 years the SnP500 index showed roughly 8%. Therfore 8+12=20% might be the best performance in the world, which compounded the initial seed to 4000 times, over the 45 years. See the link at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf If there is better performance achieved than the 4000 times (roughly in one's life for 45 years), tell me now. For a practical example, seed of 10K should be compounded to 4000*10K=40M (also initial 100K should go to 400M) for his entire life for 45 years.
Furthermore, since most readers in this article did NOT spend 45 years in trading yet, tell me 1) In my first 5 years, my seed has been compounded to 1.2^5 =2.48832 = 2.5 times. 2) In 10 years, 1.2^10 = 6.191736 = 6.2 times. 3) in 20 years, 1.2^20 = 38.3376 = 38 times. 4) in 30 years, 1.2^30 = 237.3763 = 237 times. 5) in 40 years, 1.2^40 = 1469.772 = 1470 times. Note that all the above 5 cases are same growth in compounding. Also, if you are healthy enough to live 10 more years than your buddy with same annual 20% performance logic, then you have a chance to make 6.2 times of his/her fortune than your buddy.
Wow @rmorse, you are a very fast learner ! I've never heard of anyone becoming consistently profitable within 6 months on deciding on becoming a trader
@Handle123 Thats a heap of money to lose. How about I trade in Sim until I have doubled my account? (Even if it takes me seven years) That is why I have been backtesting (no real money trading) for the past year, until I have found a model that has an acceptable win ratio, drawdown etc. How did that seven year losing streak psychologically and personally affect you? (ie. how did your wife/family react? how did you maintain your self esteem/ self confidence? ) I think most would be depressed if they ran a business that was losing seven years in a row. Please remember, I ask these questions out of respect. Thanks, IWDI.
I think best is doing 1000% before you try real money and only do one lots, you have to be so ready coming out of the gate, you going to compete against the very best. I wasn't married at the time and no kids, I was buying houses from near bankrupt builders for huge discounts, lived in them as I started finishing them few hours a day after I day traded 3-4 hours then go work for government nights. I kept so busy, didn't eat me up like others. I saw it differently than most, saw it as opportunities as a way not to do again. I was making money trading stocks, the leverage really messed me up.
I'm kind of curious about this: Why didn't you post a poll in addition to your OP? Don't you think a poll would be relevant and beneficial?
Its been nearly 2 years for me but still not a consistent result. I have a strategy but my problem is patience. As my account capital is not big one so I try to make large profit from small capital and boom, mostly get a margin call.