How long did it take for profitability?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by melmel, Feb 12, 2009.

  1. Mr J

    Mr J

    Jaytrade:

    Lucky, yes, aren't we all at times?

    Of course, but running up so much so quickly is luckier than most.


    He made 1/3 of it all on this one trade

    There you go - right place, right time. Then again, many decent or better traders would have made a ton of money during the fall.

    Not profitable? Well, um, somehow 40k extra was deposited into his account after many winning trades. And yes, a losing day of 5k.

    As in not +ev, i.e. not skillful enough to profit over the longrun. He may have had good reading, entry and exit skills, but if risk management isn't half-decent, one won't succeed over the longrun.

    Well I did point it out, but newbie success is dangerous in a way that they think they can always pull home runs. I told him a break is OK...so now he's only pulling 2% ever so often, not 100% or 200% lol.

    Actually, there's a lot of value in letting people find this out for themselves, so that's ok.

    Also, something to note...he's an excellent Texas Hold'em player! So I'm sure this plays into his success to some point.

    He may or may not be. There are poker skills that do transfer well to trading, but there's also a lot of risk management involved in poker, so I'm not sure how great he could be :p.

    I think it helps to understand various betting games. Good bets, donkey bets, bad beats, etc...Having the "nuts" and going all in, without a flinch...

    These have more to do with mentality. Good bets is being focused, bad beats are a cop out unless you understand they're part of the game (poker and trading). Having the "nuts" and going "all in" relates to a specific hand. You don't go all in with your entire bankroll, so the equivalent in trading would be finding a very good spot and increasing your trade size (within reason).

    Now you'll probably say, he could have blown out. He's told me many times, "Dude, I could have lost 50% or more on that trade possibly"
    so he KNEW it was possible. Did he care? I don't think so, mainly because he was starting with 4.5k (originally 2k before trading some stocks).


    Knowing it and not adjusting for it shows irresponsibly. The amount he started with isn't really relevant, as what matters is how much you have at the present. If he has 20k, then that is what he's risking. Additionally, a responsible trader would treat a bankroll of any size in a similar fashion, apart from having to deal with scalability or adjusting aggression for capital size (smaller capital wants growth, larger capital will want more preservation).


    I honestly think he's good

    I'm not saying he can't spot good trades, but it takes more than that to be a good trader. Just as it takes more than that in poker.

    I only tell this story because it is quite baffling what can be done with the leverage of futures and FX...as well as the Danger!

    Certainly, and how many lose it all back again!

    And don't take my bluntness the wrong way, I don't consider myself a good trader either. I may have solid mental stability and good risk management, but my entries and exits leave a lot to be desired :).
     
    #31     Apr 1, 2009