That depends on what you trade and how good your are at doing it. It also depends on your portfolio size and is really for portfolio managers. Not people like us who do not appear on anyones radar. Thanks for the charts but I have no clue as to how they were derived. A price change is more or less unpredictable as there are so many participants in the market bidding/selling a particular item (stock, bond, currency, futures etc) but that is not the point. It is like what I said before, you need to know where you are and just take each bar as it comes. As more information (bars) come to hand you can make a further decision on if to buy, hold or sell. I am not trying to predict anything. I just make decisions on what is before me. I have a clue as to where price might go but that is all. If I get hit, fine but if not, I will do something else. As an example, I am trading the DAX as we speak, I went long at 22:22, took a hedging short at 22:44, cleared the short at 22:56 added to the long at 23:00 with a target of 12,800 (I use obvious price targets) but I am still holding as there is quite a bit of momentum in the index tonight. Efficient Market Hypothesis just does not come into this but a good night on the DAX does Just closed all at 23:46 @ 12,820. Why? Always leave something for the next person plus it looks like it might roll over... We shall see edit: It did turn. How far? Maybe not much as this is generally an up night on the DAX
This statement pure hogwash. Quote: "It's not random but we may never know the reason". Snakeoil talk at its finest. For every tick or bar no one knows the reason! Period! There's a billion people trading at any one time, are you suggesting Joe Bloggs in NY knows the reason why an unknown person in an unknown city placed a trade and made price move, or 102 people simultaneously somewhere spreadout all across America placed their trades which moved price?
An indicator can tell where the price is LIKELY to go next, just like the weatherman uses indicators (temperature, wind velocity, atmospheric pressure, cloud formations, etc...) to predict tomorrow's weather. Even in life we are constantly using past and current data to make an educated guess about the future. Well same thing with technical analysis, its uses the past and the present to determine the most likely outcome in the future. Of course the "efficient market theory" clowns will try to persuade you that the past cannot predict the future. Just let them talk, while we technical analysis traders continue to consistently extract money from the markets.
Exactly right. I still struggle with that daily. Resolving to stop making the same mistakes is important, though easier said than done!
Some people get to fail forward! It is a blessing that most of us do not have Trump, our current king, is a guy who failed forward. He was amazing and bold in the 70s to late 80s in RE, but after then it was failure after failure. Coming from a rich family helped him stay afloat, and the artful use of loans. His brilliant marketing/branding skills (sometimes unethical) allowed him to have greater fame in the late 90s-2000s with a new TV career. I'm no Trump hater or Trump fan, but there's a lot to learn from watching a dude like that!
OK we demand you show your audited statement to prove to us it is actually true. Just kidding. Ignore what I just said, a CAGR of >27% for 25 years is unmatched even by Schwager's market wizards. It is good to know such outstanding achievements are achievable. We now have a target goal to shoot for. Finally as a side note, I agree about trading using IRA. Back in Bush's final years of tax cut, one could convert IRA, full or partial into Roth and could spread the conversion into two calendar years. so I took advantage of it and converted $XXX. All my trading profits are tax free! Best to you sir.