IMHO, respectfully, you can't make money by watching price. Now there are some characteristic price movements, like the sudden drop, and gradual but inevitable recovery that give some clues. But in Forex, you do not have access to the accumulation and distribution patterns, which would be a Time and Sales from which we can make inferences about accumulation and distribution patterns. Trading is all about buying lower than you sell. The larger entities operate on rather small differences between buy and sell price, potentially, but they must accumulate on price drop and then distribute on price rise such that their volume weighted average delta (sell - buy) is positive. The Futures contract does offer Time and Sales so if you can relate that to the corresponding Forex pair, then maybe you have a basis for prediction. Just some ideas.
You have to keep in mind that the fundamental analysis crowd has spent year after year trying to convince profitable technical analysis traders that it is impossible to make money using technical analysis. Beyond that all that I can offer is screen/chart time, screen/chart time, screen/chart time and more screen/chart time. Natural for me since I am visually oriented. You should also notice that the "house" rotates their algorithms from time to time to keep the retail traders off balance. Not a big issue once you learn how to recognize it. Best wishes for your trading.
Interesting, can you elaborate on that pls? More specifically, about the time frames and perhaps examples of what you think they do? Personally I trade on fundamentals and technicals but it's always good to know what the big players are doing.
Use the least amount of leverage and trade in the smallest increment possible. Trade in a timeframe that makes the spread insignificant. Set profitability goals. Scale up slowly only if you meet them. Never use full margin even when you are consistent... one event out of your control can clean you out! Never add on to a losing position. Get a backup broker. Diversify.
To be a successful forex trader you need BOTH iron discipline and an edge in the markets. Incidentally, if you do not know what your edge is...you don't have one! If you don't have the time or the experience you can go with a: money manager (typically you need 10-20,000 to start and cough up 20% of profits), or, a good signal provider with a good - and transparent - performance record. I know some good performers in both categories.
check out ddav's thread, he found a way to automate forex trading that might give some ideas, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=214316