I think there are web sites out there that list the stats on how many times analysts are correct and how often cos hit their target. So you're back to playing the odds. Imo, the killer on earnings estimates is when cos lower guidance. Yes, they might lower guuidance after reporting but I'm talking about prior to earnings season or weeks after. There is no way to gaurd against this. (at least that I know of). One I never will forget. Everything is going along honkey dory and boom stock drops like a rock losing about 60% in minutes on a Friday afternoon. Co lowers guidance. How in the heck could I expect that?