Hi LF, It seems you're in a swing trade from 1,42 so here is my daily chart. Still within upward long term channel and above EMA. 1.4020 is a very important support (previous Resistance, EMA, and TL) to break in order to go lower. If we hold above this level, a test of 1,4250 high is in play.
I think another factor in play but less obvious is the run up in Oil excess perto dollars need to be reinvested and why not the euro. Yes I think the euro is shit right now when it comes to their debt woes but the fact remains if EU is hinting of a increase then the money is going to drive there for the short term. We all remeber how the S&P acted when bernake was hinting on a QE2 program maybe this price action is similar to the hinting of rates for the euro. its tough to be short right now knowing if rates do go up then the euro can possibly go to 46 Im on the sidelines on this one as the decision gets closer ill take another look at the euro charts
Appreciate the input, Joman. Our charts look different, although we both use daily bars. The subjective nature of charts I`m entering OCO orders tonight. Buy stop @ 1,4150. Buy stop @ 1,4050. I don`t expect any big moves before the meeting, unless someone "knows"" something, so it is better to cover what I have for now I think. What`s your experience of the market leading into a ECB meeting? Does volatility contract in anticipation of the meeting?
Because retail traders are still short EUR/USD and non commercials are long EUR...yet, options analysis shows we are nearby a major top. When will this occur? I have no idea! But when it happens, I am happy to ride the WAVE...
I'm looking at EUR/USD spot, maybe you look at 6E and we'll have different charts for sure ! It's been a while since interest rates haven't been changed and my experience is quite limited so I can't tell However, volatility could very well expand since we're already in a congestion zone and the ECB decision might be a trigger. Nice buy stop above 1.4150, already well in the money !
could this have played a big role in the spike today? 180 pips was quite a move even after US rate hike comments. Hoping to see a nice gap down on sunday http://www.zerohedge.com/article/g7...japan-rescue-dollars-sends-greenback-plunging