You're going to lose your shirt shorting here. Be prepared for the "shock and awe" melt-up which started this week.
That could very well be the case. The market is anything but rational. Let's see how it plays out. Fortunately, this shirt only cost $500, so if it gets shredded to rags I will buy a new one.
You may be right in your call but if your timing is off, you get killed. Think of the Big Short and how those guys almost lost it all because they were early. I think we could have a huge run-up before the opportunity you're looking for arises - -but that's just me. By the way, you must be doing something right to have a $500 shirt.
%% Mostly right; except 2000 tech wreck was a bear MARKET \not a crash + big difference. Took a risk + stayed in, me to mostly, but sold qqq+SPYG……… this week/today. MAY know something by sunday nite; except court cases MOST LIKELY
You're absolutely right. I would have thought it would crash by 2015-2016 at the latest. I didn't understand their "can kicking" power. The only thing I can really do is keep studying, keep watching that chart, and hopefully make the right call, and if not, learn something from it. There is a LOT of signs and signals pointing toward a crash right now. I've been watching the articles piling up for weeks, with a more and more ominous tone. I've done a lot of things wrong too, so that's why it's now worth only $400. The lessons learned so far have been valuable though!
Yesterday in SQQQ there was a major divergence from VIX, in that VIX continued rising while SQQQ kept falling. This morning the price was adjusted and now the divergence is happening in the opposite direction--as of this moment VIX keeps falling while SQQQ isn't dropping nearly as fast. I do believe a lot of people's short term trades got blowed out over the past few days and many are moving back to ETFs.
Dave: You seem like a good dude so not trying to pick on you here. If you get really good at reading the charts and sentiment, you can just avoid the news / articles and let the market tell you what it wants to do. Remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In the words of Bruce Lee: "A man is born to achieve great things if he has the strength to conquer himself . . . One can never be the master of his technical knowledge unless all his psychic hindrances are removed and he can keep the mind in the state of emptiness (a state of fluidity), even purged of whatever technique he has obtained - with no conscious effort . . . To be detached is to be free of positive and negative . . . What IS is more important than what SHOULD be. There is "what is" only when there is no comparison at all, to live with what is, is to be peaceful. Not conviction, not method, but perception is the way of truth. It is a state of effortless awareness, pliable awareness, choiceless awareness. To see a thing uncolored by one's own personal preferences and desires is to see it in its own pristine simplicity. Be a calm beholder of what is happening around you. Live freely from moment to moment, letting things happen and adjusting to them. There is an awareness without choice, without any demand, an awareness in which there is no anxiety; and in that state of mind there is perception. It is the perception alone that will resolve all our problems. A mind that is not fixated is a fluid mind . . . To accept [loss and defeat] . . . is to be liberated from it. Once you accept this you are free to flow and to harmonize. Fluidity is the way to an empty mind. Be water, my friend."
formika, thank you for the wisdom and insight. I'm listening to your advice, and to anything others want to share, also. I see what you mean about the bull rally. I'm going to keep holding SQQQ right now, even though it's highly probable to be the wrong move. My attention is too divided at the moment. I would have sold at the peak this morning, but right at the peak is when I finally got my internet connection back online, and I didn't have time to react. I'm using a GSM card to get online out here in the boondocks, and it was housed in an external box, connected to the PC via USB cable. Something was flaky in that USB connection and it would drop out and reset randomly. It was really harshing my buzz over here, fighting that all day long. Just pulled the GSM card out of that box and put it into my laptop, then set the laptop up as a gateway so my main PC can use it to get online. Connection is rock solid now, and I can already feel my blood pressure decreasing. Next step is to get a faster GSM service plan, so I don't keep bumping into the data limit and slowing down to nothing. Working on that also. Since I have the laptop setup in this new configuration, now I need to also install some additional tools so I can move data back and forth seamlessly. Working on that right now. To answer deaddog's question, one major thing I've learned is that trying to day trade on such a flaky, unreliable connection, is a complete non-starter, which is why I'm working on this right now. I have lost money several times due to this problem. Another lesson is that I needed a better data feed, which is why I just wrote some scripts yesterday to automatically fetch ticker data from Yahoo. I'd been using the Fidelity chart which is absolute garbage, and doesn't even have an auto-refresh feature, so you have to keep clicking the button to get new data. My new system has a "ticker" script fetching quotes every second, writing it to a flat file, then another script converts that into a format suitable for Gnuplot to generate an auto-updating graph. I'm well aware that most of my moves have been shit so far, and as you can see, I've been hard at work identifying the exact problems and solving them. I hope to get these foundational issues worked out soon so I can actually focus all my time and energy on the trading.
%% I stopped trading TZA +inverse semiconductr =,single stocks; did better in long tech ETFs,spxs,TECs, solar stocks May profit daytrade out of spxs or cut a loss by tues or wed next week/not a predcition. Good week/not weak with 50 minutes till close + good 50dma /solar.Thanks