My experience which seems to repeat frequently, when I feel conviction in a trade, when most optimistic, the trade fails, when I have doubts often the stock is a beauty. I've learnt often best to place a trade on a signal and not on gut feel. Saying that, discretionary still plays a part as I'd need millions $ to take every signal.
I also feel this same way. When the trade looks too perfect, its usually only because its so obvious to everyone else and hence ripe for turning on a dime. But I guess with reference to what this guy is doing, since he is literally moving NG through pipes and has mapped out what is happening where, his conviction really means something. I would say its kind of like being a taxi driver with the traffic overlay on goggle maps. If you can see a live feed of where the heavy traffic is, and hence can take a better route, your chances of getting to the destination faster is a high probability. While others are stuck on the highway, you might be using side streets to gain an edge. But of course, a freak accident can still happen in front you which completely kills your head start. So taking NG trades just based on charts is one thing. But if a trader actually incorporated weather data to forecast how cold the next few months will be, and also had access to production forecasts, on top of all the other factors that go into affecting NG pricing, I think a high conviction with this much information is perhaps a good thing. A high conviction just based on PA and chart patterns perhaps isn't complete enough.
The context he created is lost on most commenting, the quote was something like "out of 100 people at the firm 4-5 are traders and making the money that pays the rest of the people.. The 95 are in roles to support the trader, naturally everyone want to be the trader but those trading aren't necessarily moving on.. it's a lot of stress" His racing metaphor was great, something like "As the driver, it's up to you to win and get that paycheck that everyone else's livelihood depends, it's an incredible amount of pressure and not everyone is up to the task" I really enjoyed the drops on location and time arb.
Just some friendly advice: If you want to succeed at this game you have to be honest, if not with us, at least with yourself. From those two posts, I think you should hang it up. Trading isn't for you.
He may be a trader but I doubt he’s made the amount of money he’s claimed to have made.. read his body language, facial expressions, his tipping eyes and flared nostrils. dead give away he’s fibbing about the numbers. you guys are soooooo easily hoodwinked.
One thing I don't get is when he mentions when Crude prices were collapsing at start of pandemic, he had to reverse his NG shorts because with no crude, NG would skyrocket. It was, as he called it, his most memorable trade. But I looked back at HH spot prices of the time, and it was near record lows? Anyone know which kind of NG he saw spiking through the roof?
You're alive. Good deal. I was worried you got shanghaied out in Vegas by one of KC's Asian babes and was tied up in a cellar somewhere west of Beijing. What happened to the "Hello Comagnum" part? ..."Simon says" No... he post it because in his gut he knew it was bs. 2 week ban from ET. There's a key on your keyboard that says "enter".... when used every now and then it breaks up the text for those of us that unlike @SimpleMeLike 's grandfather... hear better than we can see. ET
Hello vanzandt, There is only one sentence that have protected my trading capital and from brutally raped by Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars hard penis trying to sell me Lies and Scams, and that is one simple quote from grandfather. "Shut up Talking Boy, I see, better than I hear". In my words to Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars "Shut Up Trading Gurus Sellers/Liars, I see, better than I hear"