The fact that you even ask these questions shows you haven't understood a thing about this. Either you can trade pure volatility or you can trade options directionally but even in this last case there will be some componant of volatility you have to take into account in.
the problem in our chat is a diferent Concepts that we use. And it is not an occasion what to offend me..
OOo ,men, sorry..I think i understood!! My problem is an different concepts... I try to explain.. In my trading program i have value like VOLATILITY for each option.. And i thought ,until this moment, that it is a ñertain index of option volatility based on HV of base contract and option deals.. And i used this value for pricing an option on our market..And may be this is only the value of the IV getting from the last deal with option???
This whole thread has been running around in circles. Reread your own thread and really try to understand what people are saying, it seems you are missing big points. I don't know maybe it's the language barier or something else, the end-result is the same: you don't get it.
future volatility, historical volatiliy, predicted volatility, implied volatility ... these are all DIFFERENT things, you seem to think they are more or less the same, they are NOT, if you had read the books I had advised you to read you would know all this by now. Over and out. I have spend enough effort here. I am unsubscribing to this thread.
HV is not IV. HV is based on past data. IV is what the overall market is pricing now. Like many have said, plug in your numbers into a generic black-scholes pricing model. Adjust your volatility until the prices of your options match similarly to that of other market participants. Then you will know IV. Trying to predict IV is like me trying to predict where GOOG will open on Friday. Have no idea. I can make a rough approximation, but I do not know with full certainty. IV works the same way. Where's atticus to give you the lecture on stat vol? lolol -lc