How i can to figure out the volatility?

Discussion in 'Options' started by jenek-cowboy, Jul 7, 2008.

  1. panzerman

    panzerman

    Here is an answer to the original question. It is an algorithm to compute IV, using the Method of Bisections. Developed by Bernt Odegaard.


    #include <cmath>
    #include "fin_recipes.h"
    double option price implied volatility call_black_scholes_bisections(const double& S,
    const double& K,
    const double& r,
    const double& time,
    const double& option price){
    if (option price<0.99*(S-K*exp(-time*r))) { // check for arbitrage violations.
    return 0.0; // Option price is too low if this happens
    };
    // simple binomial search for the implied volatility.
    // relies on the value of the option increasing in volatility
    const double ACCURACY = 1.0e-5; // make this smaller for higher accuracy
    const int MAX_ITERATIONS = 100;
    const double HIGH_VALUE = 1e10;
    const double ERROR = -1e40;
    // want to bracket sigma first. find a maximum sigma by finding a sigma
    // with a estimated price higher than the actual price.
    double sigma low=1e-5;
    double sigma high=0.3;
    double price = option_price_call_ black_ scholes(S,K,r,sigma high,time);
    while (price < option price) {
    sigma high = 2.0 * sigma high; // keep doubling.
    price = option price call black scholes(S,K,r,sigma high,time);
    if (sigma high>HIGH_VALUE) return ERROR; // panic, something wrong.
    };
    for (int i=0;i<MAX_ITERATIONS;i++){
    double sigma = (sigma low+sigma high)*0.5;
    price = option_price_call_black_scholes(S,K,r,sigma,time);
    double test = (price-option price);
    if (fabs(test)<ACCURACY) { return sigma; };
    if (test < 0.0) { sigma low = sigma; }
    else { sigma high = sigma; }
    };
    return ERROR;
    };

    PS: The last for loop will not display properly for some reason. Google Bernt Odegaard to get the original recipe.
     
    #21     Jul 8, 2008
  2. This answer is good...But only for student on the examination in economy...Not for The practising trader...Sorry
     
    #22     Jul 8, 2008
  3. ooo...I am at last starting to understand you...And about this method(Garch) i want to hear...if i correctly understood you i must first find the volatility by this method and then i find an value i put it to model, is it correct?
     
    #23     Jul 8, 2008
  4. cvds16

    cvds16

    MTE knows what he is talking about, as far as I can tell from his other posts he is a practicing trader in options.
    I have been previously a market maker in options and have done arbitrage in options for my own account for several years. This is the way you should do it.
     
    #24     Jul 8, 2008
  5. may be you right....
    I start explain my Thoughts in another word's.I trying to do this in simple word's.Don't kick me if I will make an error...

    We use two variant of volatility..IV and HI..To get a theori price of option we must to knew a IV( in another case we can't to calculate the value)...For me-putting a HI in model is a blunder....It mean we should to calculate the parameter(volatility) to put it in formula by another method....
    Is am i correct????

    I'm so sorry for my english...But you must trust me...I try as i can...Thank for all for helping me in this quantion...
     
    #25     Jul 8, 2008
  6. Means I not understood him....Sorry to MTE
     
    #26     Jul 8, 2008
  7. this situation i watching on options on futures an index...It is really real?????
     
    #27     Jul 8, 2008
  8. a picture
     
    #28     Jul 8, 2008
  9. i think that this answer more similar to be truth....
     
    #29     Jul 8, 2008
  10. cvds16

    cvds16

    this is just part of the answer, the basic thing is what the other guy is saying.
    considering your charts, I don't read russian and don't know what they are showing: could be anything.
    If it is implied vol: that's possible, it can change rather quickly in turbulant market, like today. Please buy yourself some books, to put it rather nicely, you don't know much about this. A thread is not a good way to start to learn from scratch, you got to read some books.
     
    #30     Jul 8, 2008