How high can the S&P go?

Romeo · Oct 17, 2003

Quote from waggie945:

As posted on another thread, the volatility has been crushed since March of 2003. In fact, the historic peak in volatility was the 30 months from Jan. 2000 to March 2003 when there were 5 months out of EACH year between 2000-2002 and 2 of 3 in the first quarter of 2003 where there were monthly moves greater than 10%.

Since March of 2003 we have the following moves:

April: 8.99%
May: 6.76%
June: 5.36%
July: 5.48%
Aug: 5.08%
Sept: 4.95%

On a weekly basis, we have only had 5 weekly ranges greater than 4% since this past March, and 4 of those were in the 2nd Quarter and only 1 since the end of June.

By the way, in the 24 years from 1976 thru 1999, the average was 1 per years ( at 8% ) with only 1 year with 4 (1987) and 2 years with 3 ( 1982 &1998 ). The three years 1973-1975 was 25%, and that was the only other period in the 53+ years period of any considerable magnitude. 1970 also sticks out because there were 6 occurences but only 1 other in the 6 years of 1967 thru 1972.

Of course now the $64,000 questions is whether or not the "storm" of volatility is completely over, or whether or not we are simply passing thru the "Eye of the Hurricane" before another shoe drops!

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Thats great wiggle. But on this thread, we cut through all the excess noise, and go right to the chase. So where do you think the S&P will top?

Romeo · Oct 17, 2003

Quote from Mvic:

I know it can't have been easy. What a difference a few days make, feeling much better about things now.
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Thanks Mvic. And like I wrote before, your post the other week helped convince me to stay the course. Contrary to all the maggots that say I refer to myself as a "guru" (I never have), listening to your input shows how truly adaptable I am to include others good ideas. It's only a good trader with humility that can admit he can be helped by others insightful ideas.

waggie945 · Oct 17, 2003

I do not have the kind of "Crystal-Ball" that you have nor do I find myself being real productive when I get LOCKED-INTO a certain opinion on the market.

Taking a look at various sector indexes like the BTK, BKX, SMH, etc does show a loss of momentum.

I'm short today and will stay short with a close below 1040.80

1021.75 is possible in the next day or so.

Romeo · Oct 17, 2003

Quote from waggie945:

I do not have the kind of "Crystal-Ball" that you have nor do I find myself being real productive when I get LOCKED-INTO a certain opinion on the market.

Taking a look at various sector indexes like the BTK, BKX, SMH, etc does show a loss of momentum.

I'm short today and will stay short with a close below 1040.80

1021.75 is possible in the next day or so.
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Wiggie,

if its one thing you should have learned from this thread, no one is "locked in" to anything. We have gone over and over how the only successful traders are the ones who can change their minds.

I don't have a crystal ball, just charts and smarts.

AMT4SWA · Oct 17, 2003

IMO today the retracement has started to the 990 area...

That is my call before we see over 1050 + area again...we shall see.

Chris

AMT4SWA · Oct 17, 2003

A close today below 1039 area is a good sign for more down move ahead IMO...key level.

Romeo · Oct 17, 2003

Quote from AMT4SWA:

A close today below 1039 area is a good sign for more down move ahead IMO...key level.
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This is what I refer to as a "shorty-come-lately"

AMT4SWA · Oct 17, 2003

I have been trading big SHORTS in the ES for over two weeks now. Today was just another great trading day for me as I felt we were ready for some retracement...pilled on the SHORTS right out of the open. Throughout numerous trade days now over the last two weeks as the S&P kept reaching new tops, I have entered ES SHORT positions to ride down the pullbacks during the day. Today was just the day I was looking for in the natural cycles of price action...after new tops we have retracements and I feel today we have just started one (down to the 990 area prior to any cross back above the 1050 level).

TTYL!

Chris

Romeo · Oct 18, 2003

Quote from AMT4SWA:

I have been trading big SHORTS in the ES for over two weeks now. Today was just another great trading day for me as I felt we were ready for some retracement...pilled on the SHORTS right out of the open. Throughout numerous trade days now over the last two weeks as the S&P kept reaching new tops, I have entered ES SHORT positions to ride down the pullbacks during the day. Today was just the day I was looking for in the natural cycles of price action...after new tops we have retracements and I feel today we have just started one (down to the 990 area prior to any cross back above the 1050 level).

TTYL!

Chris
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Weren't you the one who kept chastising the participants of this thread for their short bias??

AMT4SWA · Oct 18, 2003

Romeo,

Yes, when you were calling a "toppy S&P" in your previous thread it sounded like you were an "anti-bull". At that time I did not feel that the S&P was limited to your prediction of a 1032 top. I was in numerous LONG positions during that time as I felt the S&P was in a strong uptrend. I like any good trader need to trade what I see and at this time I feel that the S&P is due for retracement (not a huge selloff down to previous prior year lows...not a bear market selloff). I feel that the market as a whole is going to continue in an overall uptrend with typical periods of retracement. As I have stated before, the S&P will break 1100 in my opinion by the end of this year with a final "Santa Rally" push. That is my call...now what is your call for the S&P at the end of December?

Chris