i read a great book recently, "Fooled by Randomness". http://www.capitalideasonline.com/books/fooled_randomness.htm The author mentions that soros is one of the few traders he admires. there is no mention of the French insider trading charges though. i think if one is to read more about soros' bio the less likely he appears a market guru. in regards to "net success" being the measuring stick for judgement.....i guess it all depends on "when" one does the judging. but nonetheless, the book is a good read and has forever changed the way i perceive success in this business.
ron, thank you for posting the link. her work is unique, cutting edge and may give us a glimpse into what the future holds for trading. best, surfer
Thanks for the link. For those of you interested in further exploring Flavia's work, she is planning a Introduction to her work in NYC, sometime this summer. Stay tuned to her website. http://www.marketfocusing.com/main.html I have thought about this subject quite a bit, I think it needs to be approached with caution. For now I am using it to 'feel' out new trading strategies/systems I am developing.
esc and others. fans of taleb may enjoy this article---- http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm best, surfer
Thanks for the link. I finally got a chance to read Taleb's article. Excellent read ! I did buy his book 'Fooled by Randomness' about a year ago, but never read it. Just dusted it off...
I am rather an admirator of Soros and I have advised his books many times. Nevertheless I'm not blindly believing in him and it is not realistic to think that a guy that trades for the Queen of England and other richest family is just using his intuition or ability huhu ! So here's an article about his supposed Secret Financial Network. Of course discard opinions from facts in the article as you should do when you read a newspaper because the author is apparently not an admirator of Soros like me The Secret Financial Network Behind "Wizard" George Soros by William Engdahl EIR Investigation Executive Intelligence Review (EIR), November 1, 1996 http://www.nysol.se/stoppaknarket/soroseng.html
Mechanical system trading and intuitive or so-called "gut feel" trading may seems like complete opposite approaches, but I'm wondering if it's just a matter of the degree to which one can identify/verbalize/program the triggers and factors that "made you" take (or not take) the trade that makes it intuitive? For me, tape reading and short-term scalping isn't my time frame, yet by watching the markets all day long I've developed a handle for certain types of price movements which may sometimes help me in making intermediate time frame decisions -- these I usually write off as just "gut feel". Yet if I someday decide to sit down and trade the smaller time frames, I'm sure I would try to hunker down and really dissect those movements, until I can bring those "fuzzy" details out of my "gut" and into my active consciousness. For those of you who trade on both sides of the line, what do you think of this take on inutition?
You bring up many good points. I believe that is what the conventional view of trading is, that mechanical system trading and discretionary trading (gut feel) are complete opposites. I my case I do take off 1/2 to 1/3 position based on gut feel, which is really chart patterns, mkt run up etc. That has served me well. Unfortunately for me, I tend to overdo it, at times I have used gut feel to 'enter' positions and have even reversed positions in a strong trending mkt. I believe what Flavia's methods try to accomplish is to make logical reasoning (mechanical system) and intuition (discretionary trading) work together. The hard part of discretionary trading is SEPERATING 'emotion' from true 'gut feel'. I know of no other systematic method that accomplishes that. That is why I believe her work is so important for me. As I mentioned previously it is like developing another indicator, however this time the indicator is the subconscious mind or what she calls bodily felt sense. "I'm sure I would try to hunker down and really dissect those movements, until I can bring those "fuzzy" details out of my "gut" and into my active consciousness." Nothing is ever missed by the subconscious mind, it has billions of pieces of mkt information stored. All that time that you sit in front of the computer passively watching the mkt, the subconscious mind stores all. For obvious reasons not to overwhelm the conscious mind, very few facts are brought to the conscious mind. The question is how do we mine all that data and turn it into effective knowlege. I believe thats where Flavia's methods comes into play.
Soros was already a billionaire when he made his famous Pound trade 10 years ago. That did not make him, nor would it have broken him had it not gone his way.