For news driven ones like BreXit, US election, interest change, yes maybe. Price discovery is my third PhD research topic( which I haven't done yet) so I can't give you scientific evidence yet.
According to my research results, I see commercial traders usually take short positions for hedging purpose and when there is excess selling, they create extreme volatility in the price. On the hand, there is some constraint on market makers' activity and one of them is that they are not allowed to destabilize market price. It's up to you to take develop your own strategy but I am just letting you there is greater risk in taking short positions than taking long positions
Hi Mr. Big Mac , It's good to see you back at Forex forum I have access to almost all financial data as I am also a financial market database administrator for my University
Trading short term or long term depends on each trader's strategy and not every trader is fan of long term trade holding. There are more scalper then long position holders.
Taking a short position is not appropriate trading/investment strategy. It's like you're hoping for someone go down the hill. That's not a good mindset Short positions are introduced to the market for commercial traders to hedge their price risk, not for trading/investment purpose.
What? Are you being serious? Are you saying a trader should be long only? Is this what your 1TB of phd research data shows?
No, my point is that's how a short position was introduced to the market - for hedging purpose. Likewise, I would never take a short position unless it's for hedging/insurance. Brokers are smart, they know traders lose more money when they take short positions than long positions because there is more volatility when a market is in a bear trend, yes, so for that, you're right, my results support that. Besides, by introducing a short position, it becomes more like baccarat in Casino - Player or Banker. Which one do you prefer for next betting? - Short or Long? It's upto you because now you trade with gambling principle
In trading I like with swing trading strategy, than scalping, because as scalping required good concentration and also focus to making small target, missing opportunity might will possible to fail, although as swing trader also not always right because eventually skill analysis that also determine
You need to learn a lot before earning, enough knowledge would be required to become successful in Forex Trading.