Or we see nukes go off when Iran gets the bomb. It will happen eventually, and I just hope the missile defense shield really can hold the now 99% hit rate at expectations. This is the only geopolitical risk. Why is currency depreciation failure, though? Our dollar was at 122 and I want to see it get back there. There's no reason it shouldn't be 100 or higher, and that means all of these nations printing money faster than we are will see their currencies depreciate, hyperinflation hits the rest of the world before us, and in the event of another default the next president will face an even more precarious economy than Bush or Obama had. I say the dollars had it with going down, and the notion that the dollar is fairly valued is laughable. It's not fairly valued unless it's at 100. It's a crisis to see it this low, because we all favor a strong dollar, and sooner or later, the dollar's going for a ride. All of these nations will see food shortages and raw materials sky rocket while dollar based commodities fight to find a price that will rally the dollar, keep gold in check, possibly leave interest rates negative, and the Euro collapses. It is a fallacy that printed money will ever improve a nations foreign exchange rate. Fallacy. Pure Fallacy. Every other country is printing money faster than us, so it is their currencies that will depreciate, but our dollar will not fail. It will rally to its fair value much higher from here, and even if we cannot prevent hyperinflation in other countries from spreading it will spark last in domestic markets, after every other economy sees their nation lose value and even more dollars go into treasuries, there will be nothing left but the trillions in US debt supported by $60 trillion of private citizen wealth. And you can take it to the bank that we will always be more than 20% of the World's Economy. Definitely. There is no way to do business without dollars, and Euro falling is to be expected. It was always supported falsely by mistaken beliefs in the treaties that were signed to support the union, and the failure in greece is just the tip of the iceberg. They all go down with it except the smart, intelligent Brits who had enough sense not to give so much of their sovereignty to socialist bureaucrats. No, currencies never appreciate when money is printed at a faster rate than the rest of the world. The glut is guaranteed to devalue currencies in every case. There is no macroeconomic perspective that ever says otherwise. The end shall come, but it will only be to a more valuable dollar, and growing stable economy and that political party who gets the White House will be able to keep their seats in power for at least the next 4 presidential terms.
the collapse in all three has already occurred. the first to realize it will have the best chance of surviving it.
Beau, you won't see USD at 122 again. What was going on the world when the USD was at 122? The EU was a smaller block of countries. Furthermore, Germany West having just recently reunified with Germany East (10 years), was a much less potent nation than it is today. That was also a booming period in the economy as the USA pulled out of its 90s recession, and was enjoying comparitively low interest rates after their 18% peek in the 80s. Europe was still dealing with the massive consequences of the collapsed Soviet Union. 122 hit just before the USA Tech bubble burst, followed by the 911 events etc. and the subsequent massive growth in debt. The USA is much weaker now that it was then. Although recovering, its recovery is very precarious. It can't, YET, support a failing Europe without falling back into a recession. But you may be right. Time will tell. As for the nukes.... well that would render the economic problems insignificant in contrast. Iran won't fire off nukes for the same reason no nation but the USA in WWW2 has fired off nukes. Its suicide. These maniacle leaders, when push comes to shove, are cowards. The Iranian leader is no different.
Remember, No Russian! The last person I expect to fire the bomb is the US, but that doesn't mean if famine spreads to the world through hyperinflation there won't be war. There will be war, only insofar as sovereign nations are able to marginalize smaller nations. US is victor. Nothing beats drones, stealth fighters, and smart weapons.
Euro up to 1.32 today on more greek "hopes". This is getting quite ridiculous....those short the Euro should be drinking ouzo.
Sounds like we've brought home the troops and let those countries take care of themselves as independent democracies. War's won. Now to stamp out the last of the maniacs hell bent on getting WMD's, including chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. If I had to guess, we probably are aware of a few plots and we're actually ready for them with water boarding.