And again there is ONE thing I'm missing with last week's "bottom" and that is bearish sentiment (PIT/CALL ratio) Next week or two will be the moment of truth.
so as far as your calls stock is the the 50th or 51st time the bear mkt has ended? I can't keep track
Thanks be to stocktrad3r, I went totally short Friday pm and now it feels good to be on the other side of you.
Exactly. There will be no capitulation precisely because everybody's waiting for it. It's never that easy. When this market reverses it will be 40% through its reversal before even the wiseguys realize it's for real. Forget TA; the number one rule is that the market never does what the majority anticipates. The other alternative to a capitulation is a sideways drift for months/years - but no capitulation.
Couple car companies going belly up (even CH 11 vs 7; in this credit market a CH 11 for those huge companies may spell death regardless) and more financials such as consumer credit companies going belly up will likely bring capitulation... anticipated by majority or not. National health care will assist in capitulation as all the profit companies are suddenly faced with extinction after one final thrust to be the Guvment's choice. Not to mention jobs, jobs, and no jobs . Lots of downside room, but some upside too. Just trying to trade as it comes, but can't resist predicting either.
True, there are plenty of looming disasters, but these possibilities are already largely factored in and they might be resolved in less-than-disastrous ways. We might see a Gov't guaranteed buyout of Chrysler and GM by Ford or some other variation on the investment banks theme (shareholders and employees screwed , of course). The very problems that might precipitate a capitulation might, through their resolution, spark a reversal. National Health Care is years away and job-loss numbers are anticipated and losing their impact.