I would not expect either realized nor VIX hitting 100+. 100 vol is over 6 per day for a sustained period of time. I think 2008 was a special case where disruptions to the market structure due to cross defaults were priced into the volatility markets. I doubt we’d see something like that again.
To me trying to analyze and predict the economy is way harder than trading the markets. So, it's always impressive to see people doing that and than basing trades off of it. For me would just add in another complicated factor, not to mention timing issue for me to get wrong. It's possible I am just exceptionally bad at predicting the economy though or maybe others are that good.
It's not truly predicting the economy and use it for trading. It is making sense of the market as it relates to the economy. If the market is over reacting beyond the worst case scenario, then, what does it mean? If market sold off hard beyond the worst case scenario, what are the chances it will to lower and by how much? This is useful to plan ahead in trading and to strategize approximately. I can definitely say that anticipating ahead of time to frame your trading strategies gives you better clarity on the market movement.
Those etfs are good but one slight positive out of the market and these will sell quicker than they rose. TVIX could easily sell off $50 in a single day. With volatility getting to extreme it usually doesn't last long especially a vix above 50 for longer than a set amount of days is usually nonexistent so you have to trade accordingly.
I believe there is a 5%-10% chance that it does, but at those extreme levels it wouldn't last more than a day. I hope it gets there because buying some vix puts or buying equities for a bounce would be easy at that point.
Shit just got real here in nyc. 113 confirmed cases. Ppl are stocking up like there is no tomorrow in my local grocery Asian stores. Empty shelf at my local cvs stores. Let see what future will bring when it open in less than an hour.
I already experienced this first hand in WA last week. Yesterday the markets are all stocked up on food again.