It seems to me that the approach to dealing with the crisis of debt and sagging economy is somewhat different in the U.S. then it is in the European Union, viz., the U.S. seems much less interested in austerity measures than the Europeans. That, in the long run, i would think, should be supportive of the Euro and non-supportive of the Dollar. Though i anticipate near term Euro weakness, in the long run, assuming the E.U. does not completely unravel, it seems as though Trichet and company will not out cheapen Bernanke and company. Though with a U.S. election coming up there is a mad dash to appear fiscally responsible, in reality the sky's the limit for U.S. spending and borrowing. Consequently, the U.S. market should wend its way to the moon along a staircase of inflation. (Obviously I am not part of the "it's 1930 all over again crowd.") So far that's just what we see --never mind those absurdly contrived official inflation figures-- Euro/USD up, market up, Euro/USD down, market down. How long can it continue? Who knows? But i can tell you this: Unlike Argentina, who had to temporarily halt the presses, the U.S. is unlikely to run out of paper on which to print Dollars.
I think Euro will fall dramatically only if one of the countries such as Greece declares bankruptcy or something.
seems like the euro is having a little reversal right now... btw, Greece will not default, the EU knows better than to let n e of its members go bankrupt
Free Lesson for NEWBIES Re #1: Baron's ET = Retard Central = NEVER EVER see a turn = always the LAST to know despite most having spent their entire lives in the markets. Re #2 Baron's ET is a nonpareil (x exponent because its a private place) place for any lion pride to settle down and create a family - why? the food supply is plentiful + neverending. Have lions already settled in? For sure, but its a gross violation of real life because in the wild only one pride per territory is the unwritten law. Here there are several prides. Who are they? THE SPONSORS. And let's not forget the LIGER (lion+tiger), the one with the dark mane, Baron. ------------------------------------------- Send all 12+ posters who are already within the HERD to \keep-an-eye-on\contrary_indicator why? date of thread opener ..... 6-10 (the date when this prey member took action by posting) euro bottom (temp?) ..... just 3 days prior (a power-fibo # strongly resident within the HERD collective mind) given that the post opener was within the cusp of max. -ve sentiment thrust against the Euro, i.e. 98% euro haters, that makes the op + respondents very, very special meat for a lion.
But wait, there's more ..... The euro bottom was on 6-7. Yet all the way upto 6-29, these cats still didn't see a turn AND kept posting nonsense. And the creme de la creme? On 7-1 (yesterday) one HERD member FINALLY got it after he saw the huge 1H upside bars, by posting this petulant, peevish gesture ... "seems like the euro is having a little reversal right now..." ----------------------------- can't fckin believe I ever did want to LEAVE ET. Such a lovely place, such excellent prime cuts and loads of salads all around. Meat and veggies and lots of water to drink and swim in too. bonus for brand new - bies: if you'd like to see how these cats talk to each other, I mean the language, see this video, watch it all, one of my favs, but for the talk fast forward to 0:52 and dig it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOEXOBx9eVc&feature=related
Somebody is pretty sure of themselves. Sure enough to not bother asking if EUO is a standalone trade, or part of a larger strategy. FYI, EUO is one of 9 securities purchased, in 50k blocks, beginning when the SP500 20 DMA crossed the 200, headed down. Another block when the 30 crossed, and another when the 40 crossed. Seeing as the 50 DMA has been flirting with a cross the past three days, my 150k leveraged short position in the SP500, EU, Russell, and Dow is currently up 10k, with Gulf shores oil impact, 2Q reports, EU issues, and 30 US cities and 5 US states on the edge of bankruptcy, all yet to come. See...this time around, we don't HAVE another $5 Trill to throw at a crash. With the EU at the edge of a cliff now, how hard is it to extrapolate the effects of a confirmed double dip in the US economy, and the fallout to the Euro? (Hint: see FXE, Nov 2008, and Feb 2009.) One more block to buy, and that 150 will grow to 200k total when the 50 DMA stabilizes below the 200 DMA. If by some miracle great news starts spewing out of the global economy, (yeaaah right), I have $10k to float down before getting out, dead even. If miracles do not occur, I am poised to make a killing. All in in tax protected accounts. Take a big step back, sport. I got yer prime rib. It be draggin the ground... ;-)
Still looking for a number/estimate, either a percent decline or a price, of either the Euro or the EUO etf, where the EUO etf falls apart. I want to ride it down to max profits, but not so far as to lose the investment if the currency collapses, and don't have a good feel for where anarchy commences. TIA.
Remember that back at that time, Europe was not in serious financial trouble. 0.66 would not surprise me as EU is really choking under the debt load and future obligations. 0.5 would surprise me, but still possible. Many EU countries are simply hiding their real future obligations from their statistics. I expect CDS spreads widen a lot for EU as a whole, for several years. There is nothing they could fix easily or quickly. Without free and easy money, European socialism is facing a terminal dead end.