how does this system looks?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by fgptrader, Mar 18, 2007.

  1. fgptrader

    fgptrader

    Total trades: 151 (ES, 3month period)
    Total win :87 , 57%
    Total loss :64, 42%
    Ave. win : 2.79 or $134.94
    Ave. loss : 2.37 or $123.94
    W/L ratio : 1.088
    *commisions are included to the calculation*

    just trying to get some opinions on this result. thanks.
     
  2. fgptrader

    fgptrader

    I am also curious what other traders systems number looks like. I use market profile and dynamic pivots to take advantage of short term price move against the trend.
    I think I could be right about 60%of the time and keep W/L ratio to close to 0.
     
  3. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    just wondering where you get your market profile from?

    mark brown
     
  4. fgptrader

    fgptrader

    I use Ensign. there is a study, Price histogram. It shows POCs and VPOC. and also enthios.com has great infos trading VPOC.
     
  5. Steveyd

    Steveyd

    At an average trade of about $25/contract and 2.5 trades a day, you may not be able to quit your day job with this system :) I see you've included commissions (good), but what about slippage? This could eat significantly into your $25 on the ES with a $12.50 tick.

    Does your 3 month test period include the most recent 3 months (i.e. post 2/27 context)? How does your system perform in other 3 month periods?

    Maybe you can get a little more bang per contract on another index (e.g. ER2).

    Steve
     
  6. I would not use that system with real money! You need to account for $30 per contract slippage and commission as a general rule! Actually most of the time it’s $12.50 slippage and then the commission on the es..

    Here is what I am running on 90 days back test and this is without commissions on tick data.

    Total trades: 36 (ES, 3month period)
    Total win :80.56%

    Ave. win : $101.29
    Ave. loss : $35.71

    Gross Loss: $250.00
    Gross Profit: $2937.50
    Net Profit: $2687.50
     
  7. I forgot to add that when back testing a day trading system the results should be consistent every month as far back as you can go. If they don’t you just found something that is a that does not work long term and soon the system will start loosing.
     
  8. NOt tradeable, IMO
     
  9. This cutting is very close. Basically your net profit is about 1/2 a point. So very close to break-even if you count 1 tick slip each way.
     
  10. There is stuff better out there... keep putting in the screen time.
     
    #10     Mar 19, 2007