I'm not disagreeing, I actually do kind of agree. But why would it be the more smart you are, the longer it takes? Why? F. P.
This is along the lines of what I've found works for me. I try to think like an MM and try to guess what price movement would screw over the most traders. The S&P e-mini is a great one for this. Before an "expected" move occurs the price is sure to move in a way that takes out the most stops. Then, and only when the average day trader is putting his fist through his monitor, the price goes in the "right" direction. There's probably a more eloquent way to put this, but I hope you get what I'm saying. --opm8
Clueless: Trading seems to be your passion, at least it sounds to me like you are, and certainly no shortage of commitment on your part. When you say: âI have not found anything that holds up under scrutinyâ, what set of criteria are you using to judge your positive expectancy system to determine if it âholds upâ or not? Oh, and another thing, as long as you keep learning something new, you havenât failed! Kermit
I have an answer for you, with all due respect - this is my opinion but based on my personal experience the last several months. You have spent a lot of time looking at what you THINK you do well when it comes to trading - and not nearly enough time looking at what you actually DON'T do well in trading. In other words, your opinion about your trading methods, tactics, behaviors etc. do not match the facts. But facts rule. _______________________________________________ Do you ever trade counter-trend? WHY???? Are you still trying to call the Top or the Bottom? Do you have personal habits (i.e poor sleeping habits, etc.) that are affecting your trading and ability to focus? Do you commit any of the 7 Deadly Trading Sins? 1) Too Much Size 2) Lifting Stops 3) Chasing 4) Jumping the Gun/Overtrading 5) Adding to Losers 6) Counter-Trend 7) Revenge Trading Have you found 2 or 3 regularly exploitable setups and then found the patience to wait for them? Have you defined them in writing and then committed to trading ONLY them, realizing you can add more methods later? The list goes on, but rest-assured - the problem is in a lack of a quantifiable, precise trading plan and some method of personal inventory to make sure you are following it. All aspects - methods, personal preparation, trades to avoid, information, attitudes vs. actions - all of it must be explored in great and painstaking detail - and then come up with a checklist for each day and USE IT. Only then will you see what repeated flaws in YOUR trading style/method/executions are causing your problems. I found all of this out the hard way, and I'll let ya'll know when I break even Lifetime after paying all the Tuition to learn this. Should be in a year or two so don't hold your breath LOL. Best Wishes and PM if you would like my trading Plan outline. Paul
probably because smart people find the way to make money in this business is too damn simple that they just dont believe it.
Exhortation is not enough. An statistically there are always people who succeed by pure hasard (I have already talk of the Levy law about persistency of chance and attribution of success to talent whereas it is only due to chance) and if the only reason they see is that, well, I will ask myself questions if it will go on I know a "scalper" who wins for example during nine months. Then he finished to lose 1 million. He thought he has a God touch since he didn't understand why he was winning. For a daily trader it can take years before the same phenomenon happens since it is on an upper scale but it is exactly the same thing. Of course not all winners own their success to chance but if you want to know objectively if it will last, then you have to ask yourself why.
it doesn't. that's just something stupid people say to themselves... seriously, i think that mostly gets said because (apparently) very intelligent types get all hung up about being 'right' on their analysis, and then end up taking too big losses.. other than that, i can't think what possible reason there could be to say the smarter you are the longer it takes. no way. you give me two people equal in all respects (personality traits) except 20 points in IQ and i'll bet on the smarter guy every time.
luck is a believer term, hasard is more technical term. I point on mathematical point on view not on belief point of view.
Yeah I think you are reading too much into your abilities and you are trying too hard to come up with a plan that seems complex enough to suit you for trading. Actually, keep it simple [stupid]. Stops can play both ways but without a plan in which you believe in (that is why I think you are failing), stops will definitely kill you. IQ of 140 is kind of that upper limit when you are smart enough to know you are smart and capable but not smart enough to know that complexity/smartness isn't always the answer to everything. I sometimes get amazed at how convoluted some of my actions are in performing the simplest of tasks, and compare myself to someone else, maybe less successful, who will performs the action in a much simpler way. It gets to me sometimes anyone with that kind of feeling ? Remember, only the wise knows that he doesn't know. Also, I sense you might not have that much confidence in yourself. Fear is a factor in everyday trading, overcome it or get killed.