%% Good points, i understand what you mean, Otrader; but its not a prediction @ all. If one could predict ; they could soon own the whole world quick. I never confuse profitable trading/good models with predictions, not the same @ all; good thing we dont have to be an English major to trade well/profit ......Thanks ; i dont use ultra modern dictionarys+ they're not very accurate.Spell checker not used
If one could predict w/100% accuracy, true they could soon own the whole world. If one predicted with any level of accuracy, they can profit to some extent (can profit if only lucky as well). Use of any model is use of prediction (i.e. Future will be similar to past) assuming model is based on any past behavior.
Sounds like you have good model+ profit Mr FlynRider; not a prediction + its sure not luck. Thanks ;john Henry said ''what you call luck; i call a small sample''
that drop from 8:16 to 8:30 this morning... was ruthless i almost went long a copuple of min before that I have noticed big spikes like this happens frequently on ng at around 8am
My point was whenever a trader change once from a zero position to whatever long or short, or any market neutral or spread position, the new position is actually a prediction that will become a profit or loss or breakeven position/result when/after closing it. Selling options is one example. Skillful adjustment plus super money management after any random entry of establishing an initial position is another example. As the adjustments and money management skills are part of predictions, that may or may not be directional. Saying no predictions required is just a saying. Just 2 cents.
The right word to use is "bet". We bet when we take a position not predict. "Predict" means there is no room for discussion. but betting means you are fully aware of the risk. Huge psychological difference. Predict positive word.Betting negative word people more comfortable with positive word.
Interesting and true? semantic distinction. Seems to me Any informed market participant understands every prediction is a bet and Visa-versa!!!
Trading and Betting the Horses https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-and-betting-the-horses.298147/#post-4251582
Nup! When you bet you have a hunch, that is, weighed the odds and "feel" the odds are stacked in your favour. Predictions are found in Revelations - Bible, ".....this is going to happen......." (Which I don't believe will happen) If I see, what I think is smart money buying, and so I decide to buy too, that is following, not predicting.