What's counter trend here...anyway, on the monthly chart, the bear trend appears to be finished. On the weekly chart, there is no strong trend. It looks like it's going through some congestion and waiting for a new trend to start. On the daily chart, the current upmove has gone through a transition from a uptrend to upmove pullback. In conclusion, there is no trend with natural gas at the moment, it's simply going through some congestion now.
One scenario may be this market could be setting-up for a double-bottom. If it hits 2.5 or 2.6, that might be the point to place a buy stop right above that.
On which contract? This is the point I keep making. Each month in natural gas is like its own unique market. It's very unlikely Dec is going to 2.50.
Yep, on the weekly chart it looks like it could fall again since the current upmove is a pullback rather than a continuation of the uptrend after it crossed 2.7 and currently it's staying around the resistance level at 3.2.
Yes, a good point. I will wait until the short , intermediate and long term volatility measure show a strong deviation at the same time.
My question to any one that is trading their own account is, are you guys trading based off mostly free information like EIA and weather models? I ask because I know guys like EDF Trading, BP, and a ton of other huge shops pretty much have every data service out there that costs a lot of money and also has a ton of market moving information that are not available on free websites. Do you guys think you can still compete with such a huge disadvantage in resources?
Yes, there is a ton of evidence that commercial traders (hedgers)'s overall position is negative. Not just negative but significantly negative. They don't have skilled traders and trading is not their core business
What is your basis for saying that their overall position is negative? I know lots of EDF Traders and I would not say they are not skilled or that it is not their core business.