I think you need to look at a higher time-frame to get the context. Always look at the time-frame of one order of magnitude higher (usually 10x). For example, if you trade on the 1-minute chart, you should look at the 10-minute chart as a backdrop. If you trade the 10-minute chart, you should look at the daily chart as a backdrop, etc.. The higher time-frame should give you the bias. For example, if the higher time-frame is trending up, you therefore should buy on the dips, then you look at the most bearish moment on the lower time-frame to buy. Vice versa. A higher time-frame always wins over a lower time-frame.
I guess to each their own. One of the better books I've read. I trade just about everything and I credit Mr. Smith for putting me on to junk bond funds which have made my year in 2009.
But you have to "know". How can you analyze anything if you don't know the facts? Apparentely you did not keep track of what you were testing. What I am reading into your statement is that it didn't seem like you were getting it right most of the time and therefore you determined what you looked at was useless. The reason why I asked my first question in my previous post was because many times I have found that the methods that I use are the exact opposite of what I thought would work. When you wrote that you got it "wrong" most of the time, I thought that maybe you needed to look at it differently (from the other side). But you need to "know" if in fact you really got it "wrong" most of the time and that requires keeping track of what you are doing. The bottom line for me is this (whether it be trading or gambling): I need to collect in total more on my winners than I lose on my losers. That doesn't mean you need more winners than losers. Of course if you have less winners than losers, then your average amount won must be greater than than your average amount lost to create a profit and if you are taking many more smaller profits (winners), you have to guard against the big losses taking it back in one or a few losses. That's one way to win. Joe.
This is like saying in poker, "How can I win if I don't know exactly what the opponents are holding?". Most times, you will never "know" the "facts" of a situation until all the dust has settled, and the p/l's of all those involved have already been determined. But that doesn't prevent you from making an educated guess. Uncertainty is the cross we individual traders must bear. Keeping track is fine and dandy but the sad truth of the market for statisticians, backtesters, and those who need to "know", is that something works until it doesn't, and whatever that is usually goes down the crapper pretty fast. The market is above all else a discounting mechanism, right down to each and every tick. Everything is fluid, give up your need to "know" and embrace uncertainty -- this yield the best results when trading from price action.
Price action does not exist, or it is the definition of how price wiggles. Real price action excludes S&R. Everything else is technical analysis.
LOL....ignorance runs deep on ET doesnt it? ppl like you are good for one thing on here......a good laugh