There you go - more than one way to skin a cat. Jack will teach you channels and the ES is one of the best channel trades you can get. Jack thinks your ready to learn and honest with yourself and will take you under his wing (good on you Jack). I think you're contradictory, unable to see the problem and it's solution (nothing personal) and not ready for the teacher. Thank God we are not all the same - I hope I'm wrong. A great Teacher used to begin by saying, "He that has ears to hear, let him hear." Jack will turn you into a milionaire... we'll see! The reality check is a last hope that you'll catch yourself on.
PRV and peaking volume are tough to nail down in real time because they can change rapidly intrabar or bar to bar.
You need more than the volume peaking to reverse. When using just the 5 min chart, the (right) trendline should've kept you in the trade at 00:10. At 00:50 / 00:55 a quick exit / re-entry, or two reversals, should've kept you going. The initial long entry (reversal) could've happen in several places, function of your trading resolution. When you see a nice long run it's tempting to think that you should've ignored the finer reversal signals, but as you can't predict how strong the move is, it's better to stick to a resolution you feel comfortable with everyday.
You have marked your chart as a possible FTT where the market forms a Sym Pennant. At no time does Price ever make an effort to head toward the LTL. This leaves two possible choices - neither of which is an FTT. The subsequent bar (after the Pennant) has increasing black PRV when Price breaks the High of Bar 2 of the Pennant. - Spydertrader
You make three good points. From your first bar annotation to the sixth bar counting your bar as #1 it may be difficult for a person to hold through or thay may be a type that freezes and just rides through the six bars. Neither of these results in trading are anything but tough as you point out. What would it be like for a person who is oriented to working purposefully during the day to grasp the market or even, perhaps, the help I am suggesting? The situation where you first annotate is one where the pace of the market has stepped up by one or two quintiles in pace. A person would notice this if he were running a monthly analysis on volume and he was sensitive enough to divide the market pace into deciles as as commonly done by some. I am one of those. Lets go further and see what the market looks like in terms of patterns on dominant and non-dominant traverses. Say we know something about this because we are in a purposeful work mode. Lets go further. When we are dong the deciles for pace we cross that with the market bar volatility. from this, month after month and year after year, we know what shifts in volume do to bar volatility. Because we know the relationships mentioned above, the "tough" aspect of the three points you mention revert to comfort and support for trading. What is it like when such a person is trading the six bars in the location you annotated? It is business as usual, it turns out. Four reversals are done and they are all profitable. During this time the person really doesn't get too far into intrabar trading. Lets move from intermediate trading to expert trading. At this level a person would be working a couple of trades out ahead and he would know how to plan for taking greater advantage of the six bars. He would be using leading indicators of price and even volume. With two screens rolling, he would be sweeping at least 7 sources of infomation to make up his monitoring set. as time passes he would be collecting these sets and they would shift from one combination to another to establish a "sufficiency" for "knowing that he knows". At this level more than 4 reversals is easily possible since he is carving the market turns wherever they occur by being very sensitive to detail. I only made 9 points with this person as a beginning process to deal with where he is and to get him a little further down the road. Naturally, you having similar interests in improving make three good points at locations that are "tough" for you. they won't be forever; the transition you are going through is gong to be an effective one since you are able to define problems and you annotate them and, I believe, you are open to input. What is it like to understand the market's pace? What is it like to be able to associate pace and pace change with bar volatility? What is it like to know how the Connors-Hayward volatility compression works when the compression has eneded? What is it like to know what sequence of internal patterns occur during a channel volatility expansion? What is it like to know what the end of internal patterns looks like? What is it like to be able to recognize that a market is so strong that non-dominant retraces canot be completed because volume does not drop off enough? What is it like to have a full compliment of degrees of freedom showing on your display to be able to automatically compose the proper 7 items to fold into the monitoring sweep? What is it like to have a complete finite set of all of these 7 element subsets and to know in advance what the one to one correspondence is with the element of the finite analysis conclusion pairing? What is it like to have a decision prededermined for each analysis conclusion? What is it like to be able to use a decision to always take a timely action? The answers are that it is like having sports memory for trading and a sense and feeling that you "know you know" all of the time. When I play black jack I count the number of times per session that the supervisor uses his "cricket" to change out dealers. Making money playing black jack is just a side issue; keeping the house on its toes (they think) is the real fun. If you can't play at a given place anymore, then you can just go somewhere else for a while. The point is to trade purposefully and keep learning in a purposeful manner. when you mind consciously announces something is "tough"; it is simply making the statement that it is ready to preceed with the lesson that is on the table. So take the lesson and get the debriefing completed.
Jack, You've mentioned the Connors-Hayward volatility compression several times and that it was converted to a directional indicator. If I remember correctly it had a 6 and 100 period lookback. How would that give you more information than seeing the bars (and volume) compress on the chart and breakout? Or is it just for an early warning alert? Being based on just price I could see how that might be helpful in a market that doesn't have volume (Forex). As an aside, I once converted Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to a directional indicator. Then it had the same curve as a rate of change of the same period. Turns out that the more momentum (substitute "pace" here) in the market the more efficiently it gets there - not a real revelation . - EZ
Taiwan futures moved from 335 to 348 in few hours on Friday morning Mar 21 , 5am to 10am. What a move !!! I think may be because of elections.