how do you quantify your performance

Discussion in 'Options' started by yip1997, Dec 1, 2006.

  1. YIP , ave gain per contract is very important , but only in the context of r/r.
    If your r/r is 1:50 , then 10$ per contract is not so good.
     
    #11     Dec 4, 2006
  2. IV,

    I have mixed strategies, so I want to get a simple measure for the overall performance.

    Let me rephrase my questions. Perhaps I can get a better answer.

    What is a good average gain per contract (an average after long term) for
    1. for CTM spreads
    2. for FOTM spreads
    3. Diagonal
    4. Naked writings.
     
    #12     Dec 4, 2006
  3. YIP , I cannot answer this in dollars¢cents , because I am trading opposite strategies . But let me give you detailed example of ave vs. r/r :

    Lets say you trade a 1:9 r/r. because you have an "edge" ( lets not go there !) your payoff on the winning trade is 1.23 instead of b/e payoff of 1.11 (10/9). Your ave at this point is 10 cents per contract and you thinking about stepping up in size , but...

    what if you analyzed first 100 trades where you had only 7 losing trades instead of 9 ( which would be very normal) ? That will make your winning trade payoff only 86 cents , way below of b/e. Noticed , you still are at 10 cents ave at this point.
    What ave per contract will be for next 100 trades ( with 11 losing trades instead of 9) ?
     
    #13     Dec 5, 2006
  4. IV,

    I guess I understand it. Let me rephrase it.

    The sample size depends on the r/r. If it is a high prob winning strategy, you require a much bigger sample size to have a significant conclusion in the analysis.
     
    #14     Dec 5, 2006
  5. very much so , IMO
     
    #15     Dec 5, 2006
  6. The sharpe ratio measures your risk adjusted return.

    Sharpe ratio = (Return – risk free return) / Portfolio Standard Deviation

    You would need your daily portfolio P&L data for (I would suggest) 3 months or more so that the data would be meaningful.

    You should strive for a Sharpe ratio > +1.
     
    #16     Dec 5, 2006
  7. Just to throw in my two cents.

    I measure each of the 3 strategies I trade separately and watch how they trend over time. (I want to see quickly when a strategy stops working) I measure my combo positions as a single trade (so, let's say I was doing gamma scalping, the starting straddle/strangle and all of the subsequent adjustments I make counts as a single position, not many).

    This year, I've had 1134 legs, but only 363 combos.

    Overall, I track:

    1) Net results per underlying. I love to trade ENER, but it's so far one of my bigger losers with a win percentage of 67%, but a profit factor of only .79. This stat makes me more "suspicious" of the underlyings I consistently call or manage incorrectly (and more confident in the ones I consistently call correctly). TTWO, on the other hand, has a win% of 57% and a profit factor of 3.56.

    2) Win/loss percentage per strategy combined with average winner size and average loser size. For example, my earnings long plays (i.e. I'm expecting a big pop, and I buy an option right before earnings), I'm only correct 29% of the time, but my average winner is 4x larger than my average loser.

    3) Results per day. I graph Open P&L, Closed P&L, and Net P&L for the entire year. This allows me to see how volatile my equity curve is and reminds me to "take some off the table" if my Open P&L is dramatically higher than my Net P&L.

    Sharpe ratios are more sophisticated and will give you good insight into your overall macro trading results. I prefer seeing my micro results--

    1) Am I doing better or worse at a particular strategy than I was before?
    2) Are particular underlyings troublesome (or good) for me?
    3) Am I leaving too much or too little on the table?
     
    #17     Dec 5, 2006
  8. No reason why you couldn't look at the Sharpe ratio for each and every one of your strategies, as well as your overall performace.
     
    #18     Dec 5, 2006
  9. I would love to see Victor N's sharpe ratio right before default of 97...
     
    #19     Dec 5, 2006
  10. Doesn't he run a fund ? If so wouldn't that info be publicised ?

    What happened in '97 ? Or do you mean '87 ?
     
    #20     Dec 5, 2006