How do you know whether volatility will rise or fall in the future?

Discussion in 'Options' started by nxt7, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. botpro

    botpro

    Hmm. I must admit I made an error in my calc because I assumed 100 short calls at strike 100 (and did another error: then PnL would be $-18075 and not $-8075).

    And nowhere a strike of 105 was mentioned, so I'll do my calc again with the corrected nbr of option contracts (10) and keep strike 100:

    PnL of the stockpos: $5k
    PnL of the optionpos: a loss of -146.15% of the rcvd credit of $5000: $-2307.50.
    (for the -146.15% loss --> consult an options calculator: the option can't be "at parity" because it has about a further 5 months time value (of total 8 months I used; ok, should be 9 months till Jan 2017), even when after the first 3 months its premium is 0 due to the massive change in the underlying; remind that this is a short option).
    Net PnL: +2692.50

    But this is a different situation: option plus stock, but the discussion was about option only, and then about volatility change.

    So, in short: I stand by what I said: with options alone, an early assignment means that one only can lose.

    But as said it is a different topic as volatility change is not involved in any way, but should be if one follows the discussion.

    Btw, your calc above isn't correct as well:
    how can he make $5k with options when the option was short?

    To summarize it: IMO we all three made errors in our calculations, not a good sign for any of us, IMO :D
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
    #51     Apr 17, 2016
  2. samuel11

    samuel11

    WOW you are incredibly stupid. rmorse and I were right, you obviously have never traded options.

    Here for you: http://www.theoptionsguide.com/covered-call-writing.aspx

    Out-of-the money covered calls

    I am willing to bet your entire net worth that I was right on the P/L.
     
    #52     Apr 17, 2016