How do you know what's real? (candlesticks)

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by pk3r1234, Dec 27, 2015.

  1. Turveyd

    Turveyd


    Yes, 50day sma will be near enough the same on any chart, people using it is what makes it work, where as candles to different charting systems can and do look different.

    M1 or any TF even daily, you need to look at a group of candles and work out what the supply/demand is.
     
    #11     Dec 28, 2015
  2. Xela

    Xela


    It's not quite as simple as that, but in practice the answer's probably "yes".

    M1 charts are full of what many people wrongly call "noise".

    There's actually no such thing as "noise": every tick records a transaction, and that's equally true and objective on all time-frames.

    But it's also true that the difficulties with interpreting price action are in inverse proportion to the time-frame. This situation arises because bars printed in units of time don't distinguish between high and low transaction-volumes or even between high and low tick-volumes.

    On an M1 chart, one bar can easily represent ten times the transaction-volumes and tick-volumes of another. Although that's theoretically true of M5 bars as well, the reality is that the longer the time-frame over which bars are printed, the less that applies and the less significant it is. By the time you get down in time-frame to M1 bars, it's very true and very significant, so their interpretation is harder and less accurate, and results more variable. This is what people are really (sometimes unknowingly) referring to, when they say that M1 charts have "more noise and less signal" than M5 (or longer time-frame) charts.

    Realities predicate that trading from M5 bars will give you far fewer signals each of higher reliability than M1 bars. As discussed in great detail in Bob Volman's excellent book "Understanding Price Action: Practical Analysis of the 5-Minute Time-Frame".

    One solution to many of these issues is to use charts which display volume-bars (ideally) or tick-charts (less ideally, but still better, overall than time-charts).
     
    #12     Dec 28, 2015
    birdman and pk3r1234 like this.
  3. There is no accuracy as short term time frames represent "randomness". Day-to-day market noise can be driven by many non-economically related purchase and sale decisions. Trying to derive how the market interprets new economic data from a single day’s or intraday's price action is meaningless. It takes a long time for market participants to digest and understand new information. What we should care about are the long-term trends that this buying and selling pressure creates. Those trends are the market slowly building a consensus and can stay in force with a persistence that allows higher positive outcomes of profit.
     
    #13     Dec 28, 2015
  4. There are some good candlestick patterns but you need to look at them in the context of your chart. A doji is a sign of indecision. An engulfing candle going up is bullish and going down is bearish. The color of candles is important. A bunch of red candles is bearish and a bunch of green candles is bullish. See using back testing what candles are useful in making decisions.
     
    #14     Dec 28, 2015
  5. Good question...''why 50 days?''
    Dont really know, but 200 days+50 days + 3 feet+ 1 year,10 years -are all important measures.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
    #15     Dec 31, 2015
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    As important (in someone's mind) as 199 or 201 etc etc.

    SPX with 200 SMA, since Jan'14 almost no help ... and

    just for fun I plotted lengths of fib nbrs 377 and 618. Not bad. But in the end all averages are just that. SPX 200.png SPX 377 618.png
     
    #16     Jan 2, 2016