How do you get short this China Bubble

Discussion in 'Economics' started by stock777, May 13, 2007.

  1. without getting clocked on more upside.

    Will end badly.
  2. If you're lucky, shanghai composite futures may exist before the crash.

    I read this the other day.

    So maybe within a year, there will be a CME globex product arbed to this.

    And by then, you'll be able to short from a lofty 9000.
  3. My prediction:

    Market will drop a lot. Probably over a couple of days. Not many will notice, as many see it as a buying opportunity.

    Bulls will push markets higher, but momentum will slow. Markets will drop a lot again.

    Bulls will try to push it higher, but not get there. Market will drop.

    A H&S will cause everyone on earth to short China. Their economy won't work right for years, causing their gov't to make major changes.

    Just my prediction.

    "Extrordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds." applies here. Will it happen soon? Who knows.
  4. Daal


    how do you know where are not at the equivalent of May '99 US stock bubble right now?Or 98?Remenber greenspan was calling a top in 96. This might take a long time to burst, who knows when this will end
  5. When the parameters are lost, like in this case, you never know when it will end.

    THe only thing for sure its the huge correction drop from "some point" of (at least= 25-30%. It will be from this levels? Who knows....
  6. Like I said 9000... 4000-5000 may be fair value by the time the 2008 olympics come by. If Shanghai is at a 50pe and earnings growth is really 33% annually, that sounds about right.

    Bubbles -are- driven by fundamentals, remember. Its just that people get carried away.

    The innovation (productivity growth) we experienced from the tech bubble that popped in 2000 is probably one of the primary drivers of this round of growth in emerging and developing markets. That, and cheap money that resulted from it.
  7. the is the most parabolic big market i've ever seen. this is much more vertical than naz 99-2000. its very hard to predict a top as this mania is huge. all we know is it ends bady. I'M JUST AMAZED THERE'S NO CHINA 100% CORRELATED ETF.MAYBE THEY'RE SCARED ALL WOULD SHORT AND KILL THERE MARKET
  8. Daal


    Well China is growing more than double the US grew at that time. Plus a LOT of chinese companies have high PE but at least they HAVE earnings, in the US many of them didn't
  9. if china listed shares ( in china only not HK or elsewhere)

    continue to loftier levels ( perhaps at a slower less parabolic
    rate )

    will this help "prop up" the rest of the world's markets ?
  10. Don't forget how many were killed trying to time and short the Naz back 97/98. God knows how many people and entire funds were right about fundamentals at the wrong time. And were just burned in consecutive short squeezes on the way higher.

    Will happen in China too. It will fall apart when it falls apart but not without many many early-bird bubble hunters getting fried.
    #10     May 13, 2007