It really is. W/L has to net out positive, whether with a high hit rate/low profit, vice versa or somewhere in the middle. Being right is secondary, if that.
%% LOL tough question.. Actually one can toss[differs from flip] a coin+ gets heads a bunch. But even the simple solutions, noted some of which are battle tested are a bit harder. It's a good thing for me, i could discern it was the truth === ''don't quibble over quarter + miss the move''=IBD Founder....................................................................................
Buy high, sell higher. Sell low, buy lower. You are doing the "Buy low , Sell high" mentality, to the point of failure. Likewise, STOP mixing up your time frames. There is the time frame of the trade and the time frame of the entry and exit. There is a difference between a trend and a shorter term, pulse-climax or pull back-retrace, and all within the trend. Remember Noise is NOT your friend.
OP was not talking about odds on any trades. He was asking how people figure out which trades go straight up, and which trades go down before they start to go up.
Idunno, kinda the same thing. I don't know about "straight" up/down, but.... if it's going to go up, you wanna correctly buy, right? and vice versa.
%% OK; actually that can be key, since its not about prediction. Or in other words ''noise is not your friend ''............................................