How do you estimate future option price?

Discussion in 'Options' started by 1a2b3cppp, Feb 28, 2011.


  1. ....+....
     
    #21     Mar 1, 2011
  2. spindr0

    spindr0

    Very few have responded to the 2nd half of your question.

    Put protected stock will lose, period. That position is equivalent to owning a long call and long calls lose as the underlying drops.

    The maximum loss will be apporximately the cost of the put plus the distance down to strike. How much less the loss is will depend on how far ITM the UL is, how much time remains until expiration and IV change, if any. Since you have several variables, a pricing model is necessary to get an almost accurate answer. I say almost because future IV is unknown.

    You might want to consider other strategies for protecting yourself. The best one is to get out of the way (sell the UL). Alternatively, a collar is one way to reduce the cost of the protection. Over selling calls (or bearish call spreads) above is a better hedge but introduces upside risk. Pick your poison :)
     
    #22     Mar 1, 2011
  3. spindr0

    spindr0

    A valid point but a bad example. Hedging with longer term options costs a lot less. IMO, using an option that close to exp is only for someone trading in a similar time frame and adoitly, at that.
     
    #23     Mar 1, 2011
  4. spindr0

    spindr0

    Cello, how are you? How's your viola?

    (I should be banished to Yahoo for that)

    :)
     
    #24     Mar 1, 2011
  5. How is that equivalent to owning a long call?

    The long call chart looks like this:

    _/

    Yes, it loses as the underlying drops.

    But a long put chart looks like this:

    \_

    Doesn't it gain as the underlying drops?

    From looking at the option charts, I don't think I'd ever be interested in selling options. Too much unlimited downside. I know people make a lot of money doing so, but the stock market usually goes against me so if I sold a call the market would probably go straight up the next day.
     
    #25     Mar 1, 2011
  6. donnap

    donnap

    "put protected stock" is the position referred to.
     
    #26     Mar 1, 2011
  7. donnap

    donnap

    At the very least, a 5 minute time out would be appropriate. Honestly.:p
     
    #27     Mar 1, 2011
  8. Crispy

    Crispy

    #28     Mar 1, 2011
  9. Just a smidge too much.

    50% of the time it works ALL the time.
     
    #29     Mar 1, 2011
  10. spindr0

    spindr0

    Correct, a long put is different than a long call. However, I compared put protected stock with a long call (they're equivalent) which is what you asked about in your original post. Apples and oranges.

    I suggested other ways (not necessarily better) ) to reduce the cost of hedging and to reduce the maximum loss should the underlying collapse (what you asked about in your original post). That has nothing to do with selling naked options per se.

    You're reading A and replying as if it were B. We can't help you with that. But if it's merely a lack of option knowledge, take Crispy's good intentioned and appropriate advice and read McMillan's book.
     
    #30     Mar 1, 2011