How do you determine when to follow the trend or counter it?

Coolweb,

Based on the following website less than 14% of trading days are inside days:

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/inside_day.html

How do you define it? If you have a method for predicting them I would love to hear it.

 

Knowing the trend will make you money, it just so happens that your approach sucks.

 

FYI:

Conditions Preceding a Trend Day


Several key price patterns can serve as alerts to the potential for significant range expansion:

-NR7 -- the narrowest range of the last 7 days (Toby Crabel introduced this term in his classic book, Day Trading With Short-term Price Patterns and Opening-range Breakout);

-a cluster of 2 or 3 small daily ranges;

-the point of a wedge-type pattern (which usually exhibits contracting daily ranges);

-a Hook Day (wherein the open is above/below the previous day's high/low -- and then the price reverses direction; the range must also be narrower than the previous day's range; leads traders to believe that a trend reversal has occurred, whereas the market has instead only formed a small consolidation or intraday continuation pattern);

-low volatility readings, based on such statistical measures as standard deviations or historical volatility ratios or indexes;

-large opening gaps (caused by a large imbalance between buyers and sellers);

-runaway momentum (markets with no resistance above in an uptrend or no support below in a downtrend. This condition differs from the above setups in that volatility has already expanded. In a momentum market, however, the huge imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to expand the trading range!) ...

http://www.traderslog.com/capturing-trend-days.htm

 

look at any 3 MAs , if they are near/ mixed together, no trend, if they cross each other with a nice slope then we are in trend, if CCI 50 below zero line then trend is down, short only, up if CCI 50 above zero line, long only.

 

interesting about the CCI.... i will have to check it out!

 

Given makeup of CCI ... just look for price to be closing below the 50 simple ma to achieve the same result.

 

Do a search. This has already been discussed a minimum of 20x here on ET...

 

Maybe I missed them when I did my initial search; however, I would appreciate it if you could point me in the right direction by recommending a couple.

 

Some of them...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=48845

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=43095

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=40485

 

Thanks!!!