Got any other evidence other than hindsight charts and anecdotal would of could of should of?? Ladies, hindsight is 20/20 and that's all we have here. Nothing to see, move along. Just like a psychic seems uncannily accurate, these denziens of the internet world write in such a way that anything can be "read" into their words market goes up, they win, market goes down, they win-- but only in the minds of the naive. WAKE UP
Oh man, I knew that it wouldn't be long before someone had to cry fowl. You know, the entire world is actually quite statistical in nature. When it comes to dating, you better not stop after the first girl rejects you. When it comes to looking for a job, you generally send out lots of resumes and wait to see if there are any bites. If someone said you have a 50% chance of making $100 and a 50% chance of losing $20, is this a good bet? What if you could do this over and over again... will you be making money in the long run or not? This is all that trading is. After careful study, you notice that traders act a certain way given a certain circumstance. This gives you a statistical edge. You never know when they will act differently, but knowing that over the long run you have an edge, you just have to keep doing what you see works more often than not. In this example, the way I analyze it is that overnight, traders didn't want to pay more than 3606 for each contract, but when price got down to 3589, whatever was for sale was bought. Closer to the open, traders were even unwilling to pay more than 3598, which was the midpoint. Then when the market opened, a bunch of trades happened frantically, but when we got to 3598 again, there were hardly any buyers there willing to buy. For those that wanted to sell, they kept having to lower their price. And then when we hit the overnight level at the low end that caused buyers to step in before, they just didn't this time around, so price fell out the bottom. Understanding what is going on makes you be able to make very good educated guesses on where price is likely to go. Look at it this way. Suppose you own a lumber store. You hear on the news a hurricane is coming. Do you think you need to put your plywood lumber sheets on sale because they will not be selling well over the next few days? Or do you think you can charge more because there is bound to be a huge demand? It isn't much different here. Perhaps the home depot down the street has even a better price so you don't actually end up selling much at your inflated price, but I'm sure most of the time, you will sell out everything you got and wish you had more!
Yes, but just baby steps. Emotions and fear are still prevalent, but this will subside over time, and the sooner it subsides, the better my trading will be. I will be the first to admit that in real time, the charts look not so obvious as when you look at the chart EOD. But as I've learned from Db, the best opportunities are when everyone else is confused. Add to this the idea of information risk versus price risk. The less you know, the better your price, and if you're in this to make money, getting a better price is the way to go.
What has helped me is the realization very high probability setups do not occur often. Also, I think I have an edge in the tool I use for analysis/back testing can easily incorporate multiple time frames in a single scan. As far as specific trading ideas, really there are only variations on a handful of strategies (fading a move, buying/selling a breakout or breakdown, or buying/selling a pullback for example). I think in terms of those general strategies when trying to come up with ideas. fan27
Guys or gal has a tremendous learning curve ahead. Not to mention soon discovering his horse is hitched to a rabbit hole of confusion. I worry for his family and accounts should he try to use real capital.
Dude, just because you turned out to be a failure doesn't mean everyone else will. It is truly amazing how many failed traders come on here to say how impossible it is, looking for comfort in the failure of others. And before you ask, yes I'm making assumptions just like you are making about me. Why not try and figure out how you can be a winner instead of trying to drag everyone down with you!
I use a product called Bloodhound for Ninja Trader to test ideas and determine if they have positive expectancy. Don't ever take any idea as an edge unless it has been fully tested by yourself. Reference Links: http://www.sharkindicators.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2qBAX0Gmxw No affiliation, just a happy user.