Whatever was last trend before this unless like in ES it has entered into "Reversal Zone", under normal trading in first 60 minutes of ES day trading, it has a swing of 7-10 points, so especially if market has dropped 7-10 points, I won't take any sells, more than 50% of the time when markets goes sideways it will break out to up side, whereas markets that go sideways after move up less so to continue to go up, especially in currencies when you fast move to upside with big range bars at highs you can notice sideways action for few hours then starts to show lower highs/lows. So when price enters sideways before or beyond this zone, I will label chop to whatever that trend was before looking for triple highs/lows, double extremes but more clustered into a tighter extreme or deeper by few ticks which often traps some into thinking market reversing then take breakout or it price hit Bollinger Band just enter then. Regardless where I enter, I use mental three point catastrophic protective stop, but advise all to use hard stops. Wide stops should seldom be hit, way to many allow price to hit them, too many traders sit there like deer in headlights, study price much more to know where price should not go past, do many more hours of back testing using MAE & MFE http://www.tradingheroes.com/mfe-and-mae-deconstructed-and-how-they-can-help-your-trading/ The more you fine tune your trading, better you are equipped to know more than others who don't go beyond the books.
It's not about getting your trading better as much as it is about being able to adapt to institutional HFT volatility. In the ES charts I posted it clearly had a range that it quickly retraced much greater than 3 points. I think the answer is avoid the ES futures market unless you have $100,000 or just sim trade until a micro ES contract comes out so scaling in and risk management can be done properly by retail traders.
Focus my man You reply to me with this Then you say this You wanting to avoid it.., or contextualize - then trade it And obviously - from your perspective - when perceived as direction-less - falls into the definition of chop - time to avoid Need this shit straight in your head before you can successfully navigate - whether that navigation entails avoiding.., or trading RN
Chop is in low volatility , signals are whipped the most in low or falling VOL , you want to keep out of chop you need to apply a volatility filter , i have a baseline volatility to trust a signal . Rising or greater than 'x' volatility is part of my filters , momentum has its part in this as well . You need rules/filters to mange different market conditions/patterns . Observe the patterns and apply rules to give the best probability .... position sizing , stops /targets are dynamically adjusted to underlying volatility , very low volatility = no position in my world , good trading is 70% waiting for me , patient yet decisive . emotionally difficult mindset , where systematic rises to the top ....
You're confused and mixing apples and oranges My reply to you was in response to your response to me regarding my reply to the OP. It is the OP, not I, who is seeking knowledge on how to avoid chop. I already possess that knowledge. OTOH my question to Handle123 was purely out of curiosity. I myself would never try to mix trading trends with trading chop at the same time. Indeed my TA doesn't allow it.
Let's assume that no report is coming out anytime soon. FA previously would have createsd a wave that is shown in TA or PA (For example, early in the day the FED says it will not raise interest rates any time soon which causes an upward trend in prices). When you see price obeying the TA that you use for a trade setup, then you can take it if over time for example statistical analysis proves that you have a 60% or greater win% on equal risk vs reward. To say avoid the ES futures market as a blanket statement is incorrect for traders following a trading plan with a high win%. Now, you can even have a 40% win ratio if your target is much higher than stop. So in this case you can be WRONG 60% of the time while trading the ES and still make money. Personally, I am going for a higher win% on my trade setups and trying to find patience to wait for a valid trade setup.
In a way, a chart is like an ongoing Painting to me, some brushstrokes are to move from low to high and on an angle from left to right, perhaps a tree will come into play which might be a rigid stick on and down to slow or fast moving stream. That is how I view charts now. I am not going to forecast what is going to happen, just continually watch and use my Trading Plan. To be trend is like up or down, nothing is in sideways without up or down attached to it, cause in my view if trading five minute bars, if I dropped down to one minute bars, it might have opposite trend than of five minute going sideways, and 15 second chart compared to one minute might have different as well. So whether on/off, up/down, I assign what trend is so I know what signals I can take. I am just trading fifteen minutes before day session open and first 60 minutes of day session in ES, unless FOMC coming out on this day, not much sideways happening. I will start trading hour before if report is coming out to fade the report and if after report is released and not have high volatility, I will continue to take trades unless bars get to be 1-3 ticks as there is little volume to make it move. I love trading reports, ya just got to be fast and have an idea where to get in and protective stops. If ya notice heavy resistance holding-ya wanna guess the next move? I just love the Bait jumping on the wrong side in the morning.....grin
LOL - I remember drinking that stuff - getting up the next day.., drink water and be drunk all over again Talk about one heck of a hangover Ahhh the 70's RN