If you're just starting to trade spreads etc., I suggest you dont start with Nat gas - or at least paper trade for the time being. Imo even crude will give you probably more volatility than you want to get started... There are much more forgiving products out there (stirs / grains) that would be more suitable to get your feet wet. Just my 2cts..
That would be great.. i do trade beans.. so something i know a little about, seasonality, fundamentals etc.. any books/material which gives me how to trade grain spreads? especially flys.. how to look for curve anomalies etc or even what to look for in calendars?? sorry mostly a technical day trader here.. and seem to be looking for the approach to trade spreads.. calendars and flys....
There are three classes of native exchange listed spreads: Listed as a first class product with it's own book, implication turned on (this is preferred). Listed as a first class product with it's own book, but implication turned OFF (WTI, Brent, etc, not preferred). Not listed at all but synthetically constructed with lower order products (cal vs cal, outright vs outright, etc). Both CL (CME) and WBS (ICE) have exchange traded flies, except they fit into #2. STIRs, Corn, Wheat, other Ags have exchange traded flies, but they fit into #1. As far as which one you use - that's one place where a decent autospreader provides value, because it considers *all* liquidity to determine the tightest bid/ask of the instrument you're trying to spread. Generally within energy you use cals, within other products it depends on product.
Currently listed "type #1" and "type #2" BF, CF, and DF strategies on CME: Implication disabled: Take special notice of the fact that both ED condors (CF) and double-flies (DF) have implication disabled. Even some of the most liquid contracts in the world don't get the benefit of exchange implication for every strategy type. If you're trading any of the above, use calendar spread building blocks. Implication enabled: The only condor with implication enabled for pretty much all the products is one that basically never trades on CME: FCPO aka Palm Oil (this *does* trade on BMD [Bursa Malaysia] though). For anyone who doesn't know what a "strategy" is within this context, they should go here: http://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Futures+Spreads
Spent about 20 hours.. looking at a different forum (wink/wink) and collecting info on crude spreads.. head still swimming . .probably will just focus on Crude calendar/butterflys... if i can get to a stage of the mechanics for comparison to see anomalies and marry them with some fundamental analysis to make predictions.. that will be huge.. a) thinking i will start looking at different spreads (not near term).. and try to compare with price...so compare different calendar spreads to first month.. then compare flys to near term and calendars b) have to also think about whether to use 3 month or 6 month calendar/flys or stick with 1 or 2 month *** no wonder i see only a few mentions and then retail traders just drop off nowhere to be found**** So to summarize next steps: a) Understand fundamentals b) Understand curve structures and try to think about effect due to fundamentals c) In parallel start the mechanics of plotting and comparison and analysis If someone can suggest a focus area would be great.. like look only at 3 month calendars. or look at flys at least 6 months out.. or some examples.. would be great..
That's about where I'm at. Once I started charting the synthetic flys, condors and double flys out of exchange traded calendars using decent software, I found my options very limited. Very different from the delusions presented by barchart .com Also been looking at corn, cl, big gold flys (very wide and very fast in past history)
Thank you i960 for this resource. I'll read up more about implication on an off, and this table helps me what to look out for and what to avoid. Also after your suggestion about autospreaders, I ditched CME Direct (love this platform so far) and went for the simpler CTS as I may at some future date use the autospreader. Till then I'll sick with Peter's suggestion of the 2 ladders side by side, which will keep my costs down, and as he mentioned help with queue position. On a side note the TT autospreader which I can't afford is awesome! I'm reading through this thread every few days and getting more out of it each time. There's so many ideas to take in, and then work out how to apply
Yeah, many of my clients don't want to spend the $2K per month on the TT Autospreader. For swing trading, it's just not really necessary from our experience over the past several years. The big Chicago FCMs also have 24 execution desks - and for $1/RT they can execute your Spread for you (they have tons of experience in this regard). And if they butcher it, they eat the difference. So, if you put on, let's say, 10 flys or Condors per month on average - unless you're doing HUGE size the economics aren't even close for the swing trader.
do you guys know any good platforms to program trade synthetic spreads? i want something like spreader to help me to fill legs together with program trading. it will be much better if the cost is also low. i used to use CQG but they didn't provide coding interface for program trading. i found their API but very limited support and i m not a developer so i give up. CQG spreader cost a lot also...
Most daytraders come to the conclusion that simple is better (maybe after a few years). They stick to patterns, levels or vol profile type analysis and volume and some indicator(s) for confirmation. Whatever be the journey, from what i see here, there is a strategy of analysis and execution. Analysis could be vol profile, longer timeframe charts, coupled with fundamentals and then based on their execution strategy, they enter when the trigger is what they would like it to be.. why am i talking about this here? I am trying to formulate this for spread trading.. focussed on crude... not having any reading material nor having any exposure to prop firms..so i know this is gonna be a lengthy process with lots of reading and trial analysis. Anyway so we have 1) Fundamental analysis: For this we have economic factors, outcomes of events like Opec decisions, flat price forward curves (contango/backwardation); Seasonal as well (but i am not giving it much weight here as we are trying to look forward for a discrepancy or a tradeable probability) 2) Forward curve charts: - This could be comparing the flat prices, calendar spreads, flys etc - This could have a time element to it... i.e. forward curves for every month, every 3 month etc which is also applicable to calendar spreads or flat prices 3) Correlation charts: Comparing the curves of different instruments on same graph - This could be just plotting different curves/prices of flat, calendar etc on same graph - Plotting different prices of future flat/clalendar/fly prices against the front month over a period of time Note: I think its always a good idea of downloading easily these prices so any curve or combination can be plotted in excel NOW: This is only data (and hopefully someone will comment if i left something out) Analysis piece: This is where formal training or practice is a huge jumpstart. I have not reached the stage where I can summarize how i go about this and hence my intro of how day traders approach this to give some background. For example: Do we first determine we want to trade a calendar or fly? Then if Calendar, do we decide roughly is it going to be near term or long term Once we do this, do we - Plot the correlations to identify discrepancies? - Once we think , we see a discrepancy, do we use then forward curves and fundamental analysis to form a hypothesis as to what might happen to the curve that has the discrepancy - Wonder if seasonal tendencies are worth analyzing, if we are using supply/demand and relevant news events to guide this analysis? - If we are trading calendar spreads is there much use with plotting the flys as well for those months Comment: Do prof firms do all this daily? or just look at correlation charts and trade a strategy like mean reversion or directional once they are convinced of the fundamentals Execution and Management of the trade : Who different sets of questions.. not worth discussing yet.. since that might be the easiest part with the right tools Feel free to comment/tear apart.. or even message me if you would like to do homework together