Now that I have given my opinion, here is a much more thorough discussion of the current "value" of the S&P put into a historical perspective. This is one of the best articles I have read on the potential of this downturn to be the "bottom" by John Hussman. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081027.htm
If the period is comparable to 1964-1982 (and I think it may be), the starting year certainly isn't now. It's probably 1998, when the indices were higher than today. That means we're already 10 years into a sideways market. Also, the fact remains that the Dow and S&P are working off higher highs (2000 to 2007) and higher lows (10/10/02 to 10/10/08...a coincidence???). That means a long-term bullish trend is still intact, even if it's a weak one that's mostly moving sideways. Good ol' Dow Theory.
Good stuff. Hussman is the man. His stock fund has soundly beaten the S&P and almost all other mutual funds and hedge funds for the last 7 years. His views carry a lot more weight than almost anyone at ET, because they're backed by a plethora of research and data. He's also both a PhD economist and real world investor/trader.
Yay futures surging yet again this market knows only one direction: up just like 2005: buy all the dips. 100% up room all econ and earnings data better than expected Dow 14,000 in 15 months 12K end of year
Instead of hijacking this thread, can't you start your own? The subject matter is determining if a market bottom is in place based on historical patterns. It's not a place to predict today's closing price.
Ok, which one of those came true today? Futures, 9400 to low as 9275. Market has been going down and sideways today. ISM econ data was over 6% lower than expected.