Maybe it would be simpler to go long after the bottom rather than at the bottom. You could use one of those lagging indicators that Elite Traders love so much.
We are no where near "Bottom". A typical Bear is between 40% to 50% decline. A typical bear that is. Generation unwinding of leverage is deeper and longer. This market is, well toast. IMHO 7000 or near is a base. We are in uncharted areas. However, IMHO, I believe this will be the first time in History that we have a market give back over 50% of its gains from the highs, yet still have a decent "Private" sector and Growth rate within Private companies. Manufactures are thriving still. Sure, some smaller and localized Manufactures will go under. But % wise, these guys have enough cash from the 8 year cycle of boom to last them a decade of "Slow Growth" and they are not leveraged 30:1 Energy Sector is booming, Drilling projects are backlogged in Key states, Drill baby Drill is for real. Alternitive Energy will jump start a nitch of "JOBS". Boon is already laying the foundation in West Texas. R&D tax credits, "Green Tax Credits", Tax credits for DPPs, Joint Ventures in Drilling, Tax credits on "Equipment purchase" are all in play, being extended and will shore up those two sector's, Manufacturing and Energy. Manufacturing is far more than just AUTO. Even Auto is getting an injection of funding that will, well keep it going. The bad news. WALL STREET. Finished IMHO. The hedgefunds are winding down positions, hence the weak rally and the 6 day massive down move. PLenty of more room for a capitualtion when Joe Sixpack throws in the towel and moves whatever is left in the 401k to "Short term Tbills". Investment Banks are, well gone. Any company Leverged has two choices, get it under control by liquidating assets or go under. Fed is outa bullets. IMHO, the majority of "Unemployed" will be with in the Financial Sector as a whole. Sure, you'll see some from other sectors, but the Majority will be from the Financial Sector. And that will dimish the buying power as a collective whole in consumers. So, no more 50:1 personal leverage to pretend you BLING BLING. Simple. The entire dynamic shift from "Paper Wealth" to hard assets is in play. If you do not have "Hard Assets", and you only have paper wealth.....well welcome to the Depression for your kind. Look a home sales jump, 'RE" purchase by bottom fishers. Plenty of folks out there with Plenty of Cash, I deal with them everyday. The Market does not dictate their wealth and the majority of them, if they do have money in Funds, are leaving it there because its' a very small part of their overall Net Worth. The middle class will now learn to be middle class or they will become poor. Simple as that.
The previous post would indicate another one for the 'we hit the bottom' A post with all kinds of reasons for the idea he have hit the bottom is one for the 'we're nowhere near a bottom' The inevitable rally will come out of nowhere. JMO
Reaganomics and supply side economics is what is keeping the market going. All recoveries will be 'v' shaped unless consumer spending and wages breaks down. There are no signs of that happening, and it won't happen because we're still in the new era of web 2.0, globalism, smartism, and consumerism.
No signs of consumer spending breaking down?? How about yesterdays consumer credit numbers plummeting to lowest level in 10 yrs and dropping. How can the consumer spend spend spend without their precious credit? Guess you missed that one eh?
That was a tiny decline in a relentless uptrend, and credit is not the same as income or consumption. Given this is a dire, once in century credit crisis it is amazing it is down so little. Or unless the credit crisis is fake, which I have been saying for over a year now.
Right, everything is fake. Markets haven't been tanking, stocks haven't been going down. Its all fake, its not real. The FED and European Central bank aren't panicking and taking unprecedented rate cut coordinated actions. Thats all fake right?
stock_trad3r Registered: Jun 2006 Posts: 6915 New Post 10-08-08 07:28 PM That was a tiny decline in a relentless uptrend, and credit is not the same as income or consumption. Given this is a dire, once in century credit crisis it is amazing it is down so little. Or unless the credit crisis is fake, which I have been saying for over a year now. The only thing fake is you pretending to be a trader/investor! Now go away like you promised after you blew up your DEMO Account